Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, D-18057 Rostock, Germany.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2012 Oct 30;109(44):18210-4. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1215627109. Epub 2012 Oct 15.
Life expectancy is increasing in most countries and has exceeded 80 in several, as low-mortality nations continue to make progress in averting deaths. The health and economic implications of mortality reduction have been given substantial attention, but the observed malleability of human mortality has not been placed in a broad evolutionary context. We quantify the rate and amount of mortality reduction by comparing a variety of human populations to the evolved human mortality profile, here estimated as the average mortality pattern for ethnographically observed hunter-gatherers. We show that human mortality has decreased so substantially that the difference between hunter-gatherers and today's lowest mortality populations is greater than the difference between hunter-gatherers and wild chimpanzees. The bulk of this mortality reduction has occurred since 1900 and has been experienced by only about 4 of the roughly 8,000 human generations that have ever lived. Moreover, mortality improvement in humans is on par with or greater than the reductions in mortality in other species achieved by laboratory selection experiments and endocrine pathway mutations. This observed plasticity in age-specific risk of death is at odds with conventional theories of aging.
预期寿命在大多数国家都在增加,有几个国家已经超过 80 岁,因为低死亡率国家继续在避免死亡方面取得进展。死亡率降低对健康和经济的影响已经引起了广泛关注,但人类死亡率的可观察到的可塑性尚未被置于广泛的进化背景中。我们通过将各种人类群体与进化后的人类死亡率模式进行比较,从而量化死亡率降低的速度和幅度,这里估计的是从民族志观察到的狩猎采集者的平均死亡率模式。我们表明,人类的死亡率已经大幅降低,以至于狩猎采集者和今天最低死亡率人群之间的差异大于狩猎采集者和野生黑猩猩之间的差异。这种死亡率的降低大部分发生在 1900 年之后,只有大约 8000 个人类世代中的 4 个经历过这种死亡率的降低。此外,人类的死亡率改善与实验室选择实验和内分泌途径突变所导致的其他物种死亡率降低相当,甚至更大。这种在特定年龄段死亡风险上观察到的可塑性与衰老的传统理论相矛盾。