利古里亚癌症负担的估计。

AIMS AND BACKGROUND

The regional health care system of Liguria caters for a resident population which is among the oldest in Europe. One population-based cancer registry is present in the region, providing incidence and survival data for the Genoa province (covering 55% of the regional population). This paper will estimate the incidence, prevalence and mortality in the Liguria region for cancers of the lung, breast, prostate, colon-rectum, stomach and uterine cervix and melanoma of the skin in 1970-2015.

METHODS

The estimated figures were obtained by applying the MIAMOD method. Starting from mortality and survival data, incidence and prevalence were derived using a statistical back-calculation approach. Survival was modeled on the basis of published data from the Italian cancer registries. The MIAMOD method was applied also to estimate the colorectal cancer incidence, mortality and prevalence rates in the Ligurian provinces in the period 1988-2015.

RESULTS

In 2012 about 1,500 new cases of breast cancer were expected in Ligurian women. The estimates for the other cancer sites were considerably lower, ranging from 839 (colon-rectum) to 54 (cervix). In men about 1,400 new cases were estimated for prostate cancer, while the incidence for the other sites ranged from 1,118 (colon-rectum) to 208 (skin melanoma). The breast cancer prevalence rate was more than 10 times the incidence rate in women, and the lung cancer prevalence rate was more than double the incidence rate in both sexes. Mortality rates were highest for lung cancer in men and breast cancer in women; the lowest rates were estimated for melanoma and cancer of the uterine cervix.

CONCLUSION

In Liguria a large portion of the health expenditure has been devoted to diagnostic and therapeutic resources. This may have contributed to the reduction of mortality rates and to the improvement of cancer survival. This phenomenon, added to population aging, will inflate the cancer prevalence. One of the major challenges for the Liguria region is to face the increasing demand for oncology services.

目的与背景

利古里亚地区的区域医疗保健系统服务于欧洲最老龄化的居民群体之一。该地区有一个基于人群的癌症登记处，提供热那亚省（覆盖该地区55%的人口）的发病率和生存率数据。本文将估算1970 - 2015年利古里亚地区肺癌、乳腺癌、前列腺癌、结直肠癌、胃癌、子宫颈癌以及皮肤黑色素瘤的发病率、患病率和死亡率。

方法

估算数据通过应用MIAMOD方法获得。从死亡率和生存率数据出发，采用统计反向计算方法得出发病率和患病率。生存率基于意大利癌症登记处公布的数据进行建模。MIAMOD方法还被用于估算1988 - 2015年利古里亚各省结直肠癌的发病率、死亡率和患病率。

结果

2012年，预计利古里亚地区女性乳腺癌新发病例约1500例。其他癌症部位的估算值则低得多，从839例（结直肠癌）到54例（子宫颈癌）不等。男性前列腺癌新发病例估计约1400例，而其他部位的发病率从1118例（结直肠癌）到208例（皮肤黑色素瘤）不等。女性乳腺癌患病率是发病率的10倍多，肺癌患病率在男女两性中均是发病率的两倍多。男性肺癌死亡率和女性乳腺癌死亡率最高；黑色素瘤和子宫颈癌死亡率估计最低。