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2014-2024 年全国卫生支出预测:支出增长快于近期趋势。

National health expenditure projections, 2014-24: spending growth faster than recent trends.

机构信息

Sean P. Keehan (

Gigi A. Cuckler is an economist in the CMS Office of the Actuary.

出版信息

Health Aff (Millwood). 2015 Aug;34(8):1407-17. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2015.0600.

Abstract

Health spending growth in the United States is projected to average 5.8 percent for 2014-24, reflecting the Affordable Care Act's coverage expansions, faster economic growth, and population aging. Recent historically low growth rates in the use of medical goods and services, as well as medical prices, are expected to gradually increase. However, in part because of the impact of continued cost-sharing increases that are anticipated among health plans, the acceleration of these growth rates is expected to be modest. The health share of US gross domestic product is projected to rise from 17.4 percent in 2013 to 19.6 percent in 2024.

摘要

美国的医疗支出预计在 2014-2024 年间平均增长 5.8%,这反映了《平价医疗法案》的覆盖范围扩大、经济增长加快和人口老龄化。医疗商品和服务的使用以及医疗价格的近期历史低增长率预计将逐渐增加。然而,部分由于预计医疗保险计划中持续的成本分担增加的影响,这些增长率的加速预计将是适度的。医疗保健在美国国内生产总值中所占份额预计将从 2013 年的 17.4%上升到 2024 年的 19.6%。

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