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印度燃煤电厂安装烟气脱硫装置的成本与效益

Costs and Benefits of Installing Flue-Gas Desulfurization Units at Coal-Fired Power Plants in India

作者信息

Cropper Maureen L., Guttikunda Sarath, Jawahar Puja, Malik Kabir, Partridge Ian

Abstract

Coal-fired power plants, in addition to emitting greenhouse gases, are a major source of local pollution and health damages throughout the world. China, the United States, and other countries that rely on coal for electricity production regulate emissions from coal-fired power plants, primarily for health reasons. In the United States, the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments caused many power plants to switch to low-sulfur coal or to install flue-gas desulfurization units (FGD units, or scrubbers). Subsequent tightening of sulfur dioxide (SO) regulations has caused more plants to scrub their emissions. In 2010, power plants with FGD units accounted for 60 percent of the electricity generated from coal in the United States (Schmalensee and Stavins 2013). By 2013, 95 percent of China’s coal-fired generating capacity had been fitted with FGD units (Ministry of Environmental Protection 2014). India, which relies on coal to generate 76 percent of its electricity (CEA 2015), did not regulate SO emissions from coal-fired power plants until December 2015. That lack of regulation may have been due, in part, to the low sulfur content of Indian coal (Chikkatur and Sagar 2007). Indian coal is approximately 0.5 percent sulfur by weight, similar to Powder River Basin (PRB) coal in the United States (Lu and others 2013). However, the population exposed to SO emissions from power plants in India is much greater than that in the United States, as is the amount of coal burned to generate a kilowatt hour (kWh) of electricity. Recent studies suggest serious health effects associated with SO emissions from Indian power plants. Guttikunda and Jawahar (2014) estimate that Indian power plants caused more than 80,000 deaths in 2011; they attribute 30–40 percent of these deaths to SO. Cropper and others (2012) suggest that as many as 60 percent of the deaths associated with coal-fired power plants in India may be attributable to SO emissions rather than to directly emitted particulate matter or oxides of nitrogen (NOx). This chapter analyzes the health benefits and the costs of installing FGD units at each of the 72 coal-fired power plants in India, plants that in 2009 constituted 90 percent of coal-fired generating capacity. We estimate the health benefits of one FGD unit by estimating SO emissions from a plant without an FGD unit and then translating those emissions into changes in ambient air quality. This is accomplished using an Eulerian photochemical dispersion model (CAMx) that allows SO to form fine sulfate particles (smaller than 2.5 micrometers in diameter [PM]) in the atmosphere. The impacts of PM on premature mortality are estimated for ischemic heart disease, stroke, lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) using the integrated exposure response (IER) coefficients in Burnett and others (2014). We assume that a scrubber will reduce SO emissions by 90 percent. The annual reductions in premature mortality and associated life years lost resulting from use of scrubbers are combined with an estimate of annualized capital and operating costs to compute the cost per statistical life saved and cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted associated with each FGD unit. Reducing SO emissions from coal-fired power plants offers additional benefits that we do not quantify. These include improvements in visibility (which yield aesthetic and recreation benefits) and reduced acidic deposition. Acidic deposition can reduce soil quality (through nutrient leaching), impair timber growth, and harm freshwater ecosystems (USEPA 2011).

摘要

燃煤发电厂除了排放温室气体外,还是全球范围内当地污染和健康损害的主要来源。中国、美国以及其他依赖煤炭发电的国家对燃煤发电厂的排放进行监管,主要是出于健康方面的考虑。在美国,1990年的《清洁空气法修正案》促使许多发电厂改用低硫煤或安装烟气脱硫装置(FGD装置,即洗涤器)。随后二氧化硫(SO)法规的收紧使得更多发电厂进行排放洗涤。2010年,装有FGD装置的发电厂在美国煤炭发电量中占比60%(施马伦西和斯塔文斯,2013年)。到2013年,中国95%的燃煤发电装机容量已配备FGD装置(环境保护部,2014年)。印度76%的电力依赖煤炭发电(印度中央电力管理局,2015年),直到2015年12月才对燃煤发电厂的SO排放进行监管。这种监管缺失部分原因可能是印度煤炭含硫量低(奇卡图尔和萨加尔,2007年)。印度煤炭按重量计硫含量约为0.5%,与美国粉河盆地(PRB)的煤炭相似(卢等人,2013年)。然而,印度发电厂SO排放影响的人口比美国多得多,而且每发一度电(kWh)所燃烧的煤炭量也更多。最近的研究表明,印度发电厂的SO排放对健康有严重影响。古蒂孔达和贾瓦哈尔(2014年)估计,2011年印度发电厂导致了超过8万例死亡;他们将这些死亡的30% - 40%归因于SO。克罗珀等人(2012年)指出,印度与燃煤发电厂相关的死亡中,多达60%可能归因于SO排放,而非直接排放的颗粒物或氮氧化物(NOx)。本章分析了印度72家燃煤发电厂安装FGD装置的健康效益和成本,这些发电厂在2009年占燃煤发电装机容量的90%。我们通过估算未安装FGD装置的发电厂的SO排放,然后将这些排放转化为环境空气质量的变化,来估算一个FGD装置的健康效益。这是通过使用欧拉光化学扩散模型(CAMx)来实现的,该模型能使SO在大气中形成细硫酸盐颗粒(直径小于2.5微米[PM])。利用伯内特等人(2014年)的综合暴露反应(IER)系数,估算PM对缺血性心脏病、中风、肺癌、慢性阻塞性肺疾病(COPD)和急性下呼吸道感染(ALRI)过早死亡的影响。我们假设洗涤器将使SO排放减少90%。将使用洗涤器导致的过早死亡年减少量和相关生命年损失与年度化资本和运营成本估算相结合,以计算每个FGD装置节省每一个统计生命的成本以及避免每一个伤残调整生命年(DALY)的成本。减少燃煤发电厂的SO排放还带来了一些我们未量化的额外效益。这些效益包括能见度的改善(带来美学和娱乐效益)以及酸性沉降的减少。酸性沉降会降低土壤质量(通过养分淋失)、损害木材生长并危害淡水生态系统(美国环境保护局,《2011年》)。

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