NORC at the University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, United States of America.
PLoS Biol. 2019 Feb 7;17(2):e3000148. doi: 10.1371/journal.pbio.3000148. eCollection 2019 Feb.
Knowledge of true mortality trajectory at extreme old ages is important for biologists who test their theories of aging with demographic data. Studies using both simulation and direct age validation found that longevity records for ages 105 years and older are often incorrect and may lead to spurious mortality deceleration and mortality plateau. After age 105 years, longevity claims should be considered as extraordinary claims that require extraordinary evidence. Traditional methods of data cleaning and data quality control are just not sufficient. New, more strict methodologies of data quality control need to be developed and tested. Before this happens, all mortality estimates for ages above 105 years should be treated with caution.
了解极端高龄人群的真实死亡轨迹对于使用人口统计学数据检验衰老理论的生物学家非常重要。使用模拟和直接年龄验证的研究发现,105 岁及以上的长寿记录往往是不正确的,可能导致虚假的死亡率下降和死亡率平台。105 岁以后,长寿的说法应该被视为需要特殊证据的特殊说法。传统的数据清理和数据质量控制方法是不够的。需要开发和测试新的、更严格的数据质量控制方法。在这之前,所有 105 岁以上的死亡率估计都应该谨慎对待。