Interdiscliplinary Center on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark.
PLoS One. 2019 Mar 14;14(3):e0212345. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0212345. eCollection 2019.
Has the maximum human lifespan been reached? The current record stands at 122 years, 164 days and has held for over 20 years and is more than four and three quarter years higher than the previous record. The value and persistence of this record have surprised some researchers, with some even questioning its veracity. There have been previous attempts in the literature to answer questions about how long this record might stand and whether it is truly exceptional but the focus has been mainly on the record ages, using ad hoc tools. This article contributes in two new ways. First we study lifespan records via the (inter-) record times and second we make use of specific tools from statistical Records Theory. We find that the occurrence of the present record was not surprising. We estimate around a 25% chance that the record would have survived until now and around a one in five chance that it will survive until 2050, demonstrating remarkable persistence.
人类寿命是否已经达到极限?目前的记录是 122 岁 164 天,已经保持了 20 多年,比之前的记录高出了 4 年半以上。这一记录的价值和持久性令一些研究人员感到惊讶,甚至有人对其真实性提出质疑。此前,文献中曾有过一些尝试来回答这个记录可能保持多久以及它是否真的异常的问题,但主要关注点是记录年龄,使用的是特定工具。本文有两个新的贡献。首先,我们通过(内部)记录时间来研究寿命记录,其次,我们使用统计记录理论的特定工具。我们发现,目前记录的出现并不令人惊讶。我们估计,该记录现在幸存下来的可能性约为 25%,到 2050 年幸存下来的可能性约为五分之一,这表明其具有显著的持久性。