Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai, China.
Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Biomedical Imaging, Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai, China.
Clin Infect Dis. 2020 Nov 19;71(16):2099-2108. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciaa557.
To illustrate the extent of transmission, identify affecting risk factors and estimate epidemiological modeling parameters of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in household setting.
We enrolled 35 confirmed index cases and their 148 household contacts, January 2020-February 2020, in Zhuhai, China. All participants were interviewed and asked to complete questionnaires. Household contacts were then prospectively followed active symptom monitoring through the 21-day period and nasopharyngeal and/or oropharyngeal swabs were collected at 3-7 days intervals. Epidemiological, demographic, and clinical data (when available) were collected.
Assuming that all these secondary cases were infected by their index cases, the second infection rate in household context is 32.4% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 22.4%-44.4%), with 10.4% of secondary cases being asymptomatic. Multivariate analysis showed that household contacts with underlying medical conditions, a history of direct exposure to Wuhan and its surrounding areas, and shared vehicle with an index patient were associated with higher susceptibility. Household members without protective measures after illness onset of the index patient seem to increase the risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection. The median incubation period and serial interval within household were estimated to be 4.3 days (95% CI: 3.4-5.3 days) and 5.1 days (95% CI: 4.3-6.2 days), respectively.
Early isolation of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 and prioritizing rapid contact investigation, followed by active symptom monitoring and periodic laboratory evaluation, should be initiated immediately after confirming patients to address the underlying determinants driving the continuing pandemic.
为了阐明传播范围,确定影响因素,并估计严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2 (SARS-CoV-2)在家庭环境中的流行病学建模参数。
我们于 2020 年 1 月至 2 月在中国珠海招募了 35 例确诊的指数病例及其 148 名家庭接触者。所有参与者都接受了访谈,并要求填写问卷。然后,通过 21 天的时间对家庭接触者进行主动症状监测,并在 3-7 天的间隔内采集鼻咽和/或口咽拭子。收集了流行病学、人口统计学和临床数据(如有)。
假设所有这些二次感染病例都是由其指数病例感染的,那么家庭环境中的二次感染率为 32.4%(95%置信区间[CI]:22.4%-44.4%),10.4%的二次感染病例为无症状感染。多变量分析表明,有基础疾病、有直接接触武汉及其周边地区史、与指数患者共用车辆的家庭接触者更容易感染。指数患者发病后未采取防护措施的家庭接触者似乎会增加感染 SARS-CoV-2 的风险。家庭内部的中位潜伏期和传播间隔分别估计为 4.3 天(95%CI:3.4-5.3 天)和 5.1 天(95%CI:4.3-6.2 天)。
应在确诊患者后立即启动对新型冠状病毒肺炎患者的早期隔离,并优先进行快速接触调查,随后进行主动症状监测和定期实验室评估,以解决导致疫情持续蔓延的根本决定因素。