School of Public Administration, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou, China.
Front Public Health. 2021 May 11;9:616180. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.616180. eCollection 2021.
Through assignment method, the total score of disability in multiple dimensions is obtained, and it is divided into five functional states-severe disability, partial disability, moderate disability, mild disability, and health-according to the score, and the probability of death is constructed. Using the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) database tracking survey data, by constructing a multistate transition probability matrix, the empirical calculation of the multistate disability transfer probability, with the help of the sixth national census data, we estimated maintenance time of each state, life expectancy, etc. The results show that the 3 year transfer probability of the initial healthy elderly is the highest, and the mortality rate is also the lowest. It can be found that the disability state transition probability measurement based on the data is more accurate than the model estimation; the disability scale and life expectancy estimated based on the multistate transition probability matrix are more reliable.
通过赋分方法,得到多维度残障的总分,并根据得分将其划分为五个功能状态——严重残障、部分残障、中度残障、轻度残障和健康,并构建死亡率。利用中国纵向健康长寿调查(CLHLS)数据库的跟踪调查数据,通过构建多状态转移概率矩阵,实证计算多状态残障转移概率,借助第六次全国人口普查数据,估计各状态的维持时间、预期寿命等。结果表明,初始健康老年人的 3 年转移概率最高,死亡率也最低。可以发现,基于数据的残障状态转移概率测量比模型估计更准确;基于多状态转移概率矩阵估计的残障程度和预期寿命更可靠。