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新型冠状病毒变体的全球传播。

The global transmission of new coronavirus variants.

机构信息

Collaborative Innovation Centre for West Ecological Safety (CIWES), Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China.

Collaborative Innovation Centre for West Ecological Safety (CIWES), Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China; College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China.

出版信息

Environ Res. 2022 Apr 15;206:112240. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.112240. Epub 2021 Oct 22.

Abstract

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused tremendous losses to the world. This study addresses the impact and diffusion of the five major new coronavirus variants namely Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Eta, and Delta lineage. The results of this study indicate that Africa and Europe will be affected by new coronavirus variants the most compared with other continents. The comparative analysis indicates that vaccination can contain the spread of the virus in most of the continent, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as restriction on gatherings and close public transport, will effectively curb the pandemic, especially in densely populated continents. According to our Global Prediction System of COVID-19 Pandemic, the diffusion of delta lineage in the US shows seasonal oscillation characteristics, and the first wave will occur in October 2021, with the record of 323,360, and followed by a small resurgence in April 2022, with the record of 184,196, while the second wave will reach to 232,622 cases in October 2022. Our study will raise the awareness of new coronavirus variants among the public, and will help the governments make appropriate directives to cope with the new coronavirus variants.

摘要

新型冠状病毒病 2019(COVID-19)给世界造成了巨大损失。本研究探讨了五种主要新型冠状病毒变体(即 Alpha、Beta、Gamma、Eta 和 Delta 谱系)的影响和传播。本研究结果表明,与其他大陆相比,非洲和欧洲受新型冠状病毒变体影响最大。比较分析表明,疫苗接种可以控制大多数大陆的病毒传播,非药物干预措施(如限制集会和关闭公共交通)将有效遏制大流行,特别是在人口稠密的大陆。根据我们的 COVID-19 大流行全球预测系统,Delta 谱系在美国的传播呈现季节性波动特征,第一波将发生在 2021 年 10 月,记录为 323360 例,随后在 2022 年 4 月出现小规模反弹,记录为 184196 例,而第二波将在 2022 年 10 月达到 232622 例。我们的研究将提高公众对新型冠状病毒变体的认识,并帮助政府制定适当的指令来应对新型冠状病毒变体。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/38f1/8530777/045e8e995f82/gr1_lrg.jpg

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