Department of Computer Science and Technology, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China.
National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Nov 4;18(21):11615. doi: 10.3390/ijerph182111615.
The influence of natural environmental factors and social factors on children's viral diarrhea remains inconclusive. This study aimed to evaluate the short-term effects of temperature, precipitation, air quality, and social attention on children's viral diarrhea in temperate regions of China by using the distribution lag nonlinear model (DLNM). We found that low temperature affected the increase in children's viral diarrhea infection for about 1 week, while high temperature and heavy precipitation affected the increase in children's viral diarrhea infection risk for at least 3 weeks. As the increase of the air pollution index may change the daily life of the public, the infection of children's viral diarrhea can be restrained within 10 days, but the risk of infection will increase after 2 weeks. The extreme network search may reflect the local outbreak of viral diarrhea, which will significantly improve the infection risk. The above factors can help the departments of epidemic prevention and control create early warnings of high-risk outbreaks in time and assist the public to deal with the outbreak of children's viral diarrhea.
自然环境因素和社会因素对儿童病毒性腹泻的影响仍不确定。本研究旨在通过分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM)评估温度、降水、空气质量和社会关注度等自然环境因素和社会因素对中国温带地区儿童病毒性腹泻的短期影响。结果表明,低温对儿童病毒性腹泻感染的影响约为 1 周,而高温和强降水对儿童病毒性腹泻感染风险的影响至少为 3 周。随着空气污染指数的增加可能会改变公众的日常生活,儿童病毒性腹泻的感染可以在 10 天内得到抑制,但 2 周后感染风险会增加。极端网络搜索可能反映了病毒性腹泻的局部爆发,这将显著增加感染的风险。上述因素有助于疾病预防控制部门及时发出高危疫情预警,并帮助公众应对儿童病毒性腹泻疫情。