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模拟克服新冠疫情爆发中的疫情防控措施:一种分数阶导数方法。

Modeling the epidemic control measures in overcoming COVID-19 outbreaks: A fractional-order derivative approach.

作者信息

Ullah Mohammad Sharif, Higazy M, Ariful Kabir K M

机构信息

Department of Mathematics, Feni University, Feni, Bangladesh.

Department of Mathematics, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka, Bangladesh.

出版信息

Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2022 Feb;155:111636. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.111636. Epub 2021 Nov 27.

Abstract

Novel coronavirus named SARS-CoV-2 is one of the global threads and uncertain challenges worldwide faced at present. It has stroke rapidly around the globe due to viral transmissibility, new variants (strains), and human unconsciousness. Lack of adequate and reliable vaccination and proper treatment, control measures such as self-protection, physical distancing, lockdown, quarantine, and isolation policy plays an essential role in controlling and reducing the pandemic. Decisions on enforcing various control measures should be determined based on a theoretical framework and real-data evidence. We deliberate a general mathematical control measures epidemic model consisting of lockdown, self-protection, physical distancing, quarantine, and isolation compartments. Then, we investigate the proposed model through Caputo fractional order derivative. Fixed point theory has been used to analyze the Caputo fractional-order derivative model's existence and uniqueness solutions, whereas the Adams-Bashforth-Moulton numerical scheme was applied for numerical simulation. Driven by extensive theoretical analysis and numerical simulation, this work further illuminates the substantial impact of various control measures.

摘要

名为严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2(SARS-CoV-2)的新型冠状病毒是当前全球面临的重大威胁和不确定挑战之一。由于病毒的传播性、新变种(毒株)以及人们的疏忽,它已在全球迅速蔓延。缺乏足够可靠的疫苗接种和适当治疗,诸如自我保护、保持社交距离、封锁、检疫和隔离政策等防控措施在控制和减少疫情大流行方面发挥着至关重要的作用。关于实施各种防控措施的决策应基于理论框架和实际数据证据来确定。我们考虑了一个由封锁、自我保护、保持社交距离、检疫和隔离部分组成的一般数学防控措施疫情模型。然后,我们通过卡普托分数阶导数对所提出的模型进行研究。不动点理论已被用于分析卡普托分数阶导数模型的存在性和唯一性解,而亚当斯-巴什福思-莫尔顿数值格式则用于数值模拟。在广泛的理论分析和数值模拟的推动下,这项工作进一步阐明了各种防控措施的重大影响。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/519e/8626290/2c7911a25990/gr1_lrg.jpg

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