Obsekov Vladislav, Kahn Linda G, Trasande Leonardo
New York, NY USA Department of Pediatrics, NYU Grossman School of Medicine.
New York, NY USA Department of Population Health, NYU Grossman School of Medicine.
Expo Health. 2023;15(2):373-394. doi: 10.1007/s12403-022-00496-y. Epub 2022 Jul 26.
Accelerating evidence confirms the contribution of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) to disease burden and disability across the lifespan. Given that policy makers raise the high cost of remediation and of substituting PFAS with safer alternatives in consumer products as barriers to confronting adverse health outcomes associated with PFAS exposure, it is important to document the costs of inaction even in the presence of uncertainty. We therefore quantified disease burdens and related economic costs due to legacy PFAS exposures in the US in 2018. We leveraged systematic reviews and used meta-analytic inputs whenever possible, identified previously published exposure-response relationships, and calculated PFOA- and PFOS-attributable increases in 13 conditions. These increments were then applied to census data to determine total annual PFOA- and PFOS-attributable cases of disease, from which we calculated economic costs due to medical care and lost productivity using previously published cost-of-illness data. We identified PFAS-attributable disease costs in the US of $5.52 billion across five primary disease endpoints shown to be associated with PFAS exposure in meta-analyses. This estimate represented the lower bound, with sensitivity analyses revealing as much as $62.6 billion in overall costs. While further work is needed to assess probability of causation and establish with greater certainty effects of the broader category of PFAS, the results confirm further that public health and policy interventions are still necessary to reduce exposure to PFOA and PFOS and their endocrine-disrupting effects. This study demonstrates the large potential economic implications of regulatory inaction.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12403-022-00496-y.
越来越多的证据证实了全氟和多氟烷基物质(PFAS)在整个生命周期中对疾病负担和残疾的影响。鉴于政策制定者提出,修复以及在消费品中用更安全的替代品替代PFAS的成本过高,这成为应对与PFAS暴露相关的不良健康后果的障碍,因此即便存在不确定性,记录不作为的成本也很重要。我们因此对2018年美国因遗留PFAS暴露导致的疾病负担和相关经济成本进行了量化。我们利用系统评价,并尽可能使用荟萃分析的输入数据,确定先前发表的暴露-反应关系,并计算了13种疾病中全氟辛酸(PFOA)和全氟辛烷磺酸(PFOS)所致的增加病例数。然后将这些增量应用于人口普查数据,以确定每年PFOA和PFOS所致的疾病总病例数,我们利用先前发表的疾病成本数据从中计算出医疗护理和生产力损失导致的经济成本。在五项主要疾病终点中,我们确定美国因PFAS导致的疾病成本为55.2亿美元,荟萃分析表明这些疾病终点与PFAS暴露有关。这一估计值代表下限,敏感性分析显示总成本高达626亿美元。虽然需要进一步开展工作来评估因果关系的可能性,并更确定地确定更广泛的PFAS类别所产生的影响,但结果进一步证实,仍有必要采取公共卫生和政策干预措施,以减少对PFOA和PFOS的接触及其内分泌干扰作用。本研究证明了监管不作为可能产生的巨大经济影响。
在线版本包含可在10.1007/s12403-022-00496-y获取的补充材料。