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超越颗粒物:空气污染对死亡率的因果影响的新证据。

Beyond particulate matter: New evidence on the causal effects of air pollution on mortality.

机构信息

Department of Economics, Ball State University, USA.

Department of Economics, University of North Texas, USA.

出版信息

J Health Econ. 2023 Sep;91:102799. doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2023.102799. Epub 2023 Aug 4.

Abstract

The increasing demand for electricity worldwide has caused a corresponding rise in the consumption of coal, leading to an increase in sulfur dioxide (SO) pollution levels. Despite the severity of the issue, there is a lack of conclusive evidence establishing a causal link between SO pollution and health, particularly in developing countries. We leverage a large national environmental regulation policy, implemented in China to reduce SO emissions, to estimate the impacts of SO pollution on mortality. We find that 1-μg/m reduction in SO concentrations leads to 18 fewer cardiovascular deaths per 100,000 people aged 60 years and above (0.9% decrease) and 2 fewer deaths per 100,000 children under the age of 5 (1.5% decrease) annually. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that the total health benefits of the environmental policy outweigh its economic costs. The results are consistent across various robustness checks.

摘要

全球对电力的需求不断增加,导致煤炭消耗相应增加,从而导致二氧化硫(SO)污染水平上升。尽管问题严重,但仍缺乏确凿证据表明 SO 污染与健康之间存在因果关系,特别是在发展中国家。我们利用中国实施的一项大型国家环境监管政策来减少 SO 排放,以评估 SO 污染对死亡率的影响。我们发现,SO 浓度每降低 1μg/m³,60 岁及以上人群每年的心血管死亡人数将减少 18 人(减少 0.9%),5 岁以下儿童的死亡人数将减少 2 人(减少 1.5%)。粗略计算表明,环境政策的健康效益大于其经济成本。在各种稳健性检验中,结果都是一致的。

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