Persistent or New Cytopenias Predict Relapse Better than Routine Bone Marrow Aspirate Evaluations After Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation for Acute Leukemia or Myelodysplastic Syndrome in Children and Young Adult Patients.

The clinical value of serial routine bone marrow aspirates (rBMAs) in the first year after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (alloHCT) to detect or predict relapse of acute leukemia (AL) and myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) in pediatric and young adult patients is unclear. The purpose of this analysis was to determine if assessment of minimal residual disease (MRD) by multiparameter flow cytometry (MFC, MFC-MRD) or donor chimerism (DC) in rBMAs or serial complete blood counts (CBCs) done in the year after alloHCT predicted relapse of AL or MDS in pediatric and young adult patients. We completed a retrospective analysis of patients with AL or MDS who had rBMAs performed after alloHCT between January 2012 and June 2018. Bone marrow (BM) was evaluated at approximately 3, 6, and 12 months for disease recurrence by morphology, MFC-MRD, and percent DC by short tandem repeat molecular testing. CBCs were performed at every clinic visit. The main outcome of interest was an assessment of whether MFC-MRD or DC in rBMAs or serial CBCs done in the year after alloHCT predicted relapse in AL or MDS pediatric and young adult patients. A total of 121 recipients with a median age of 13 years (range 1 to 32) were included: 108 with AL and, 13 with MDS. A total of 423 rBMAs (median 3; 0 to 13) were performed. Relapse at 2 years was 23% (95% CI: 16% to 31%) and at 5 years 25% (95% CI: 18% to 33%). One hundred fifty-four of 157 (98%) rBMAs evaluated for MRD by MFC were negative and did not preclude subsequent relapse. Additionally, low DC (<95%) did not predict relapse and high DC (≥95%) did not preclude relapse. For patients alive without relapse at 1 year, BM DC (P = .74) and peripheral T-cell DC (P = .93) did not predict relapse. Six patients with low-level T-cell and/or BM DC had a total of 8 to 20 BM evaluations, none of these patients relapsed. However, CBC results were informative for relapse; 28 of 31 (90%) relapse patients presented with an abnormal CBC with peripheral blood (PB) blasts (16 patients), cytopenias (9 patients), or extramedullary disease (EMD, 3 patients). Two patients with BM blasts >5% on rBMA had circulating blasts within 5 weeks of rBMA. Neutropenia (ANC <1.5 K/mcl) at 1 year was predictive of relapse (P = .01). Neutropenia and thrombocytopenia (<160 K/mcl) were predictive of disease-free survival (DFS) with inferior DFS for ANC <1.5 K/mcl, P = .001, or platelet count <160 K/mcl (P = .04). These results demonstrate rBMAs after alloHCT assessed for MRD by MFC and/or for level of DC are poor predictors for relapse in pediatric and young adult patients with AL or MDS. Relapse in these patients presents with PB blasts, cytopenias, or EMD. ANC and platelet count at 1-year were highly predictive for DFS.