2025年至2050年亚洲心血管疾病负担：对东亚、南亚、东南亚、中亚和亚太高收入地区的预测分析
The burden of cardiovascular disease in Asia from 2025 to 2050: a forecast analysis for East Asia, South Asia, South-East Asia, Central Asia, and high-income Asia Pacific regions.
作者信息
Goh Rachel Sze Jen, Chong Bryan, Jayabaskaran Jayanth, Jauhari Silingga Metta, Chan Siew Pang, Kueh Martin Tze Wah, Shankar Kannan, Li Henry, Chin Yip Han, Kong Gwyneth, Anand Vickram Vijay, Chan Keith Andrew, Sukmawati Indah, Toh Sue Anne, Muthiah Mark, Wang Jiong-Wei, Tse Gary, Mehta Anurag, Fong Alan, Baskaran Lohendran, Zhong Liang, Yap Jonathan, Yeo Khung Keong, Hausenloy Derek J, Tan Jack Wei Chieh, Chao Tze-Fan, Li Yi-Heng, Lim Shir Lynn, Chan Koo Hui, Loh Poay Huan, Chai Ping, Yeo Tiong Cheng, Low Adrian F, Lee Chi Hang, Foo Roger, Tan Huay Cheem, Yip James, Rao Sarita, Honda Satoshi, Yasuda Satoshi, Kajiya Takashi, Goto Shinya, Yan Bryan P, Zhou Xin, Figtree Gemma A, Mamas Mamas A, Kim Yongcheol, Jeong Young-Hoon, Kim Moo Hyun, Park Duk-Woo, Park Seung-Jung, Richards A Mark, Chan Mark Y, Lip Gregory Y H, Chew Nicholas W S
机构信息
Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University Singapore, Singapore.
Department of Biostatistics, Cardiovascular Research Institute, National University Heart Centre (Singapore), NUHS.
出版信息
Lancet Reg Health West Pac. 2024 Jul 10;49:101138. doi: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101138. eCollection 2024 Aug.
BACKGROUND
Given the rapidly growing burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Asia, this study forecasts the CVD burden and associated risk factors in Asia from 2025 to 2050.
METHODS
Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study was used to construct regression models predicting prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to CVD and risk factors in Asia in the coming decades.
FINDINGS
Between 2025 and 2050, crude cardiovascular mortality is expected to rise 91.2% despite a 23.0% decrease in the age-standardised cardiovascular mortality rate (ASMR). Ischaemic heart disease (115 deaths per 100,000 population) and stroke (63 deaths per 100,000 population) will remain leading drivers of ASMR in 2050. Central Asia will have the highest ASMR (676 deaths per 100,000 population), more than three-fold that of Asia overall (186 deaths per 100,000 population), while high-income Asia sub-regions will incur an ASMR of 22 deaths per 100,000 in 2050. High systolic blood pressure will contribute the highest ASMR throughout Asia (105 deaths per 100,000 population), except in Central Asia where high fasting plasma glucose will dominate (546 deaths per 100,000 population).
INTERPRETATION
This forecast forewarns an almost doubling in crude cardiovascular mortality by 2050 in Asia, with marked heterogeneity across sub-regions. Atherosclerotic diseases will continue to dominate, while high systolic blood pressure will be the leading risk factor.
FUNDING
This was supported by the NUHS Seed Fund (NUHSRO/2022/058/RO5+6/Seed-Mar/03), National Medical Research Council Research Training Fellowship (MH 095:003/008-303), National University of Singapore Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine's Junior Academic Fellowship Scheme, NUHS Clinician Scientist Program (NCSP2.0/2024/NUHS/NCWS) and the CArdiovascular DiseasE National Collaborative Enterprise (CADENCE) National Clinical Translational Program (MOH-001277-01).
背景
鉴于亚洲心血管疾病（CVD）负担迅速增加，本研究预测了2025年至2050年亚洲的心血管疾病负担及相关风险因素。
方法
利用《2019年全球疾病负担》研究中的数据构建回归模型，以预测未来几十年亚洲归因于心血管疾病及其风险因素的患病率、死亡率和伤残调整生命年（DALYs）。
研究结果
2025年至2050年期间，尽管年龄标准化心血管死亡率（ASMR）下降了23.0%，但心血管疾病粗死亡率预计仍将上升91.2%。2050年，缺血性心脏病（每10万人中有115人死亡）和中风（每10万人中有63人死亡）仍将是年龄标准化心血管死亡率的主要驱动因素。中亚地区的年龄标准化心血管死亡率最高（每10万人中有676人死亡），是亚洲总体水平（每10万人中有186人死亡）的三倍多，而高收入亚洲次区域在2050年的年龄标准化心血管死亡率将为每10万人中有22人死亡。除中亚地区空腹血糖升高占主导地位（每10万人中有546人死亡）外，收缩压升高在整个亚洲导致的年龄标准化心血管死亡率最高（每10万人中有105人死亡）。
解读
该预测警示，到2050年亚洲心血管疾病粗死亡率将几乎翻倍，各次区域存在显著差异。动脉粥样硬化疾病仍将占据主导地位，而收缩压升高将是主要风险因素。
资金来源
本研究得到了新加坡国立大学医疗集团种子基金（NUHSRO/2022/058/RO5+6/Seed-Mar/03）、国家医学研究理事会研究培训奖学金（MH 095:003/008-303）、新加坡国立大学杨秀桃医学院初级学术奖学金计划、新加坡国立大学医疗集团临床科学家计划（NCSP2.0/2024/NUHS/NCWS）以及心血管疾病国家协作企业（CADENCE）国家临床转化计划（MOH-001277-01）的支持。
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