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1992年至2021年老年人急性肾小球肾炎死亡率的趋势

Trends in acute glomerulonephritis mortality among older adults from 1992 to 2021.

作者信息

Teng Haolin, Zhou Honglan, Yu Jinyu, Li Faping

机构信息

Department of Urology, The First Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, 130021, China.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2025 Apr 2;15(1):11222. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-95635-1.

Abstract

This study reports trends in acute glomerulonephritis (AGN) mortality in older adults (aged 65-94 years) and its association with age, period, and birth cohort across 204 countries and territories over the past 30 years, using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 Study. An age-period-cohort model was used to estimate the overall annual percentage change in AGN mortality (net drift), annual percentage change for individuals aged 65-94 years (local drift), and longitudinal age-specific rates adjusted for period bias and period/cohort relative risks from 1992 to 2021. In 2021, there were 6213 AGN-related deaths globally (95% UI: 4460-7961). Between 1992 and 2021, the net drift for AGN mortality in high socio-demographic index (SDI) countries was 3.15% per year (95% CI 2.62-3.69), compared to - 1.18% per year in low SDI countries (95% CI - 2.01 to - 0.33). High-middle SDI countries had a decline of - 1.49% per year (95% CI - 1.80 to - 1.18), middle SDI countries - 1.52% per year (95% CI - 1.75 to - 1.28), and low-middle SDI countries - 1.78% per year (95% CI - 2.37 to - 1.20). Globally, high SDI countries showed an upward trend in AGN mortality, while others showed a downward trend. Despite the declining mortality in many regions, 15 high SDI countries, 5 high-middle SDI countries, 4 middle SDI countries, 5 low-middle SDI countries, and 3 low SDI countries showed poor or worsening outcomes in the most recent period and birth cohort. These findings suggest that AGN mortality trends are not related to a country's economic development, highlighting the need for high SDI countries to invest more in AGN-related healthcare.

摘要

本研究利用全球疾病负担(GBD)2021研究的数据,报告了过去30年中204个国家和地区65至94岁老年人急性肾小球肾炎(AGN)死亡率的趋势及其与年龄、时期和出生队列的关联。采用年龄-时期-队列模型来估计AGN死亡率的总体年度百分比变化(净漂移)、65至94岁个体的年度百分比变化(局部漂移),以及1992年至2021年期间经时期偏差和时期/队列相对风险调整后的纵向年龄别率。2021年,全球有6213例与AGN相关的死亡(95%不确定区间:4460 - 7961)。1992年至2021年期间,社会人口学指数(SDI)高的国家中AGN死亡率的净漂移为每年3.15%(95%置信区间2.62 - 3.69),而SDI低的国家为每年-1.18%(95%置信区间-2.01至-0.33)。中高SDI国家每年下降-1.49%(95%置信区间-1.80至-1.18),中SDI国家每年-1.52%(95%置信区间-1.75至-1.28),低中SDI国家每年-1.78%(95%置信区间-2.37至-1.20)。在全球范围内,高SDI国家的AGN死亡率呈上升趋势,而其他国家呈下降趋势。尽管许多地区的死亡率在下降,但15个高SDI国家、5个中高SDI国家、4个中SDI国家、5个低中SDI国家和3个低SDI国家在最近时期和出生队列中显示出较差或恶化的结果。这些发现表明,AGN死亡率趋势与一个国家的经济发展无关,凸显了高SDI国家需要在AGN相关医疗保健方面加大投资。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/95b7/11965324/9f5923157a2f/41598_2025_95635_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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