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1990年至2021年间由[具体病原体]引起的下呼吸道感染的全球、区域和国家负担

The Global, Regional, and National Burden of Lower Respiratory Infections Caused by Between 1990 and 2021.

作者信息

Kong Zhenxuan, Xiong Jin, Chen Lin, Peng Kaicheng, Liu Hui, Li Qinyuan, Luo Zhengxiu

机构信息

Department of Respiratory Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health and Disorders, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Child Development and Disorders, Chongqing 401122, China.

Key Laboratory of Children's Important Organ Development and Diseases of Chongqing Municipal Health Commission, Chongqing 401122, China.

出版信息

Healthcare (Basel). 2025 Aug 12;13(16):1982. doi: 10.3390/healthcare13161982.

Abstract

: To investigate the global epidemiological characteristics of lower respiratory infection (LRI) burden caused by (SP) from 1990 to 2021. : Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2021, we systematically analyzed -related (SP-related) LRI burden, focusing on mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and temporal trends by age, gender, geographic region, and socio-demographic index (SDI) quintiles. Decomposition analysis assessed the influence of epidemiological shifts, population growth, and aging on age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs), while an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model projected future trends. : Between 1990 and 2021, the global SP-related LRI death number decreased from 1,028,083 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 923,782-1,146,074) to 505,268 (95% UI: 454,335-552,539), and the ASMR dropped from 19.28 (95% UI: 17.32-21.49) to 6.40 (95% UI: 5.76-7.00) per 100,000. The age distribution consistently exhibited a clear two-tiered pattern, gradually shifting from being predominantly composed of young children to being dominated by older adults. Disparities were stark across SDI quintiles, low-SDI regions exhibited up to 100-times-higher under-five mortality than high-SDI regions. Geographic distribution showed the highest ASMRs in sub-Saharan Africa and the lowest in Canada, the United States, and Australia, with Mongolia and Finland showing the largest reductions in mortality. Epidemiological changes were the most significant factor in ASMR reduction. : The SP-related LRI burden has decreased globally but remains a major health concern, especially in low-SDI regions. Targeted public health interventions, particularly for neonates and elderly adults, are essential to address persistent disparities and further reduce mortality.

摘要

目的

调查1990年至2021年由肺炎链球菌(SP)引起的下呼吸道感染(LRI)负担的全球流行病学特征。方法:利用2021年全球疾病负担(GBD)研究的数据,我们系统分析了与肺炎链球菌相关(SP相关)的LRI负担,重点关注死亡率、伤残调整生命年(DALYs)以及按年龄、性别、地理区域和社会人口指数(SDI)五分位数划分的时间趋势。分解分析评估了流行病学转变、人口增长和老龄化对年龄标准化死亡率(ASMRs)的影响,而自回归积分移动平均(ARIMA)模型预测了未来趋势。结果:1990年至2021年期间,全球与SP相关的LRI死亡人数从1,028,083例(95%不确定区间(UI):923,782 - 1,146,074)降至505,268例(95% UI:454,335 - 552,539),ASMR从每10万人19.28例(95% UI:17.32 - 21.49)降至6.40例(95% UI:5.76 - 7.00)。年龄分布始终呈现出明显的两层模式,逐渐从主要由幼儿构成转变为以老年人为主导。SDI五分位数之间的差距很大,低SDI地区五岁以下儿童死亡率比高SDI地区高100倍。地理分布显示,撒哈拉以南非洲的ASMR最高,加拿大、美国和澳大利亚最低,蒙古和芬兰的死亡率下降幅度最大。流行病学变化是ASMR下降的最主要因素。结论:与SP相关的LRI负担在全球范围内有所下降,但仍然是一个主要的健康问题,特别是在低SDI地区。有针对性的公共卫生干预措施,特别是针对新生儿和老年人的措施,对于解决持续存在的差距并进一步降低死亡率至关重要。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d9b6/12385783/9f464559a629/healthcare-13-01982-g001.jpg

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