[The use of the probability model for an estimation of a infection rate of White Sea mussels (MYtilus edulis) by Metacercariae Himasthla elongata (Trematoda: Echinostomidae) ].

A comparison of simple probability analytic model of infection rate depending on host's age with natural infection rate of mussels (Bivalvia: Mythilidae) with metacercariae Himasthla elongata (Trematoda: Echinostomidae) was carried out. Data on the natural rate of infection were accumulated during 3 years; 1152 individuals M. edulis were collected in two horizons within fucoid zone of the Kruglaya inlet and the Chupa inlet of the Kandalaksha bay (White Sea). A size of shell and number of H. elongata metacercariae were defined for each mussel using compressive dissection technique. The infection of mussels per year within our model is considers as independent evens: Pn = 1 - (1 - p)n, where n is the age of mussels, Pn is the theoretical part of infected n-year mussels, p is the probability of infection within one year. The probability of infection within year is assumed equal for every age of host. The estimate of probability of infection per year on the basis of sample of n-year's mussels was calculated as Pn = 1 - n square root of 1 - I(n), where n is the age of mussels, I(n) is the part of infected n-year mussels. The retransformed weighted average value of aresine-transformed p'n was used as p in our model (p = 0.3476). Statistically significant differences between empirical and theoretical (calculated from our models on the basis this value) infection rates were not found (P > > 0.05 chi 2-test). Moreover, statistical significant differences were absent (P > 0.05 Fisher exact test) in pairwise comparisons between empirical and theoretical infection rates for each age of mussels. The model does not take into consideration an effect of such factors as host's resistance, host's migration and increase of mortality in infected hosts. The absence of significant differences between the empirical and theoretical infection rates allows to suggest, that mentioned factors under the conditions of the Kruglaya inlet do not influence essentially onto infection of mussels with metacercariae H. elongata. This conclusions is in certain inconsistency with essential differences in such characteristic as an individual resistance of mussels to the infection with metacercariae H. elongata, detected in experiments in vitro (Gorbushin, Levakin, unpublished data). Analysis of intensity of the invasion of metacercariae H. elongata into mussels allows to suggest the existence of differential death rate of the hosts, which is exhibited in individuals over 7 years old. Studied example of mussels infected with metacercariae H. elongata under conditions of the Kruglaya inlet shows that the simple probabilistic model of the natural infection rate is usable for this kind of investigation. Our study also allows to conclude that in this case the infection rate of hosts is mainly determined by stochastic reasons. However, in some cases the probability of infection rate may not depend on the age and size of the host. The study of infection rate can not be used for analyses of individual differences of hosts in a resistance to parasites and an infection ability of the parasite.