成人吸烟率：正如预期那样下降（并非如期望的那样）。
Adult cigarette smoking prevalence: declining as expected (not as desired).
作者信息
Mendez David, Warner Kenneth E
机构信息
Department of Health Management and Policy, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, 48109-2029, USA.
出版信息
Am J Public Health. 2004 Feb;94(2):251-2. doi: 10.2105/ajph.94.2.251.
Abstract
We compared observed smoking prevalence data for 1995-2002 with predictions derived from a previously published population dynamics model to determine whether the recent trend in smoking prevalence is consistent with the downward pattern we predicted. The observed data fit our projections closely (R 2 =.89). Consistent with the logic underlying the model, we conclude that adult smoking prevalence will continue to fall for the foreseeable future, although at a rate approximately half that of the decline experienced during the 1970s and 1980s.
摘要
我们将1995 - 2002年观察到的吸烟率数据与先前发表的人口动态模型得出的预测结果进行了比较，以确定近期吸烟率趋势是否与我们预测的下降模式一致。观察数据与我们的预测结果非常吻合（R² = 0.89）。基于该模型背后的逻辑，我们得出结论，在可预见的未来，成人吸烟率将继续下降，尽管下降速度约为20世纪70年代和80年代下降速度的一半。
相似文献
1
Adult cigarette smoking prevalence: declining as expected (not as desired).
Am J Public Health. 2004 Feb;94(2):251-2. doi: 10.2105/ajph.94.2.251.
2
Has smoking cessation ceased? Expected trends in the prevalence of smoking in the United States.
Am J Epidemiol. 1998 Aug 1;148(3):249-58. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a009632.
3
Trends in cigarette smoking in the United States. The epidemiology of tobacco use.
Med Clin North Am. 1992 Mar;76(2):289-303. doi: 10.1016/s0025-7125(16)30354-6.
4
An assessment of US and Canadian smoking reduction objectives for the year 2000.
Am J Public Health. 1998 Sep;88(9):1362-7. doi: 10.2105/ajph.88.9.1362.
5
Cigarette smoking among adults and trends in smoking cessation - United States, 2008.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2009 Nov 13;58(44):1227-32.
6
Tobacco use among young adults in Norway, 1973-95: has the decrease levelled out?
Tob Control. 1997 Spring;6(1):27-32. doi: 10.1136/tc.6.1.27.
7
Trends and effects of cigarette smoking among girls and women in the United States, 1965-1993.
J Am Med Womens Assoc (1972). 1996 Jan-Apr;51(1-2):11-8.
8
From the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Cigarette smoking among adults--United States, 1993.
JAMA. 1995 Feb 1;273(5):369-70.
9
Cigarette smoking among adults--United States, 1993.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 1994 Dec 23;43(50):925-30.
10
Associations between smoking prevalence, stages of change, cigarette consumption, and quit attempts across the United States.
Prev Med. 2004 Mar;38(3):369-73. doi: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2003.11.006.
引用本文的文献
1
Subgroup Analysis of Overall Survival among Smoking and Non-Smoking Elderly Patients with HNSCC.
Cancers (Basel). 2023 Mar 19;15(6):1842. doi: 10.3390/cancers15061842.
2
The Prevalence and 5-Year Incidence Rate of Cigarette Smoking and Water-Pipe Tobacco Smoking and Their Associated Factors among 15 to 80 Years Old Urban Population in Southeast Iran: Results from KERCADR Study.
Addict Health. 2022 Jul;14(3):205-213. doi: 10.34172/ahj.2022.1273. Epub 2022 Jul 29.
3
An estimation of the harm of menthol cigarettes in the United States from 1980 to 2018.
Tob Control. 2021 Feb 25. doi: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2020-056256.
4
A Magic Bullet? The Potential Impact of E-Cigarettes on the Toll of Cigarette Smoking.
Nicotine Tob Res. 2021 Mar 19;23(4):654-661. doi: 10.1093/ntr/ntaa160.
5
How much of the future mortality toll of smoking can be avoided?
Tob Control. 2020 Jun 16. doi: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2019-055530.
6
Projecting the effects of tobacco control policies in the USA through microsimulation: a study protocol.
BMJ Open. 2018 Mar 23;8(3):e019169. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2017-019169.
7
Smoking-related outcomes and associations with tobacco-free policy in addiction treatment, 2015-2016.
Drug Alcohol Depend. 2017 Oct 1;179:355-361. doi: 10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2017.06.041. Epub 2017 Aug 1.
8
Identifying demographic and psychosocial factors related to the escalation of smoking behavior among Mexican American adolescents.
Prev Med. 2017 Jun;99:146-151. doi: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2017.02.018. Epub 2017 Feb 21.
9
Prevalence of Active and Passive Smoking among Adult Population: Findings of a Population-Based Survey in Kerman (KERCADRS), Iran.
Addict Health. 2016 Winter;8(1):16-24.
10
Mexico SimSmoke: how changes in tobacco control policies would impact smoking prevalence and smoking attributable deaths in Mexico.
Glob Public Health. 2017 Jul;12(7):830-845. doi: 10.1080/17441692.2015.1123749. Epub 2016 Feb 2.
本文引用的文献
1
Hardening and the hard-core smoker: concepts, evidence, and implications.
Nicotine Tob Res. 2003 Feb;5(1):37-48. doi: 10.1080/1462220021000060428.
2
Cigarette smoking among adults--United States, 2000.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2002 Jul 26;51(29):642-5.
3
Getting to the truth: evaluating national tobacco countermarketing campaigns.
Am J Public Health. 2002 Jun;92(6):901-7. doi: 10.2105/ajph.92.6.901.
4
Smoking prevalence in 2010: why the healthy people goal is unattainable.
Am J Public Health. 2000 Mar;90(3):401-3. doi: 10.2105/ajph.90.3.401.
5
Has smoking cessation ceased? Expected trends in the prevalence of smoking in the United States.
Am J Epidemiol. 1998 Aug 1;148(3):249-58. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a009632.
6
Cigarette smoking among adults--United States, 1994.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 1996 Jul 12;45(27):588-90.
Zotero 插件