纽芬兰紫外线B辐射与1型糖尿病的时间序列分析
Time series analysis of ultraviolet B radiation and type 1 diabetes in Newfoundland.
作者信息
Sloka Scott, Grant Marie, Newhook Leigh Anne
机构信息
Faculty of Neurology, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St John's, NL, Canada.
出版信息
Pediatr Diabetes. 2008 Apr;9(2):81-6. doi: 10.1111/j.1399-5448.2007.00310.x. Epub 2008 Jan 24.
BACKGROUND
Type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) has been previously been associated with decreased levels of vitamin D. This study investigates the temporal association between average daily ultraviolet B (UVB) irradiance and T1DM in Newfoundland.
METHODS
A complete list of patients diagnosed with T1DM in the province of Newfoundland and Labrador was constructed using multiple sources. Pooled and unpooled monthly incidence data along with monthly UVB measurements were used to build a time series transfer function model. The model was used to predict the future incidence of T1DM based on previous monthly trends, and these predictions were compared with actual measured incidences.
RESULTS
A seasonal variation in pooled monthly incidence was observed. The transfer function model was able to reasonably predict the future incidence of T1DM based on previous observations and monthly UVB measurements. Tests of seasonality demonstrated a significant seasonal trend (p = 0.0003).
CONCLUSIONS
This study suggests that erythemal UVB radiation may be temporally associated with the incidence of T1DM.
背景
1型糖尿病（T1DM）此前一直与维生素D水平降低有关。本研究调查了纽芬兰地区每日平均紫外线B（UVB）辐照度与T1DM之间的时间关联。
方法
利用多种来源构建了纽芬兰和拉布拉多省确诊为T1DM的患者完整名单。汇总和未汇总的月度发病率数据以及月度UVB测量值用于建立时间序列传递函数模型。该模型用于根据先前的月度趋势预测T1DM的未来发病率，并将这些预测结果与实际测量的发病率进行比较。
结果
观察到汇总月度发病率存在季节性变化。传递函数模型能够根据先前的观察结果和月度UVB测量值合理预测T1DM的未来发病率。季节性检验显示出显著的季节性趋势（p = 0.0003）。
结论
本研究表明，红斑性UVB辐射可能在时间上与T1DM的发病率相关。
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