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一种将生殖后期寿命作为群体特征进行描述和比较的指标。

A measure for describing and comparing post-reproductive lifespan as a population trait.

作者信息

Levitis Daniel A, Lackey Laurie Bingaman

机构信息

Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Laboratory of Evolutionary Biodemography, Konrad-Zuse Strasse 1, 18057 Rostock Germany.

出版信息

Methods Ecol Evol. 2011 Oct 1;2(5):446-453. doi: 10.1111/j.2041-210X.2011.00095.x.

Abstract
  1. While-classical life-history theory does not predict post-reproductive lifespan (PRLS), it has been detected in a great number of taxa, leading to the view that it is a broadly conserved trait, and attempts to reconcile theory with these observations. We suggest an alternative: the apparently wide distribution of significant PRLS is an artifact of insufficient methods.2. PRLS is traditionally measured in units of time between each individual's last parturition and death, after excluding those individuals for whom this interval is short. A mean of this measure is then calculated as a population value. We show this traditional population measure (which we denote PrT) to be inconsistently calculated, inherently biased, strongly correlated with overall longevity, uninformative on the importance of PRLS in a population's life-history, unable to use the most-commonly available form of relevant data and without a realistic null hypothesis. Using data altered to ensure that the null hypothesis is true, we find a false positive rate of 0.47 for PrT.3. We propose an alternative population measure, using life-table methods. Post-reproductive Representation (PrR) is the proportion of adult years lived which are post-reproductive. We briefly derive PrR and discuss its properties. We employ a demographic simulation, based on the null hypothesis of simultaneous and proportional decline in survivorship and fecundity, to produce a null distribution for PrR based on the age-specific rates of a population.4. In an example analysis, using data on 84 populations of human and non-human primates, we demonstrate the ability of PrR to represent the effects of artificial protection from mortality and of humanness on PRLS. PrR is found to be higher for all human populations under a wide range of conditions than for any non-human primate in our sample. A strong effect of artificial protection is found, but humans under the most-adverse conditions still achieve PrR of >0.3.5. PrT should not be used as a population measure, and should be used as an individual measure only with great caution. The use of PrR as an intuitive, statistically valid and intercomparable population life-history measure is encouraged.
摘要
  1. 经典的生活史理论虽然并未预测到繁殖后寿命(PRLS),但在大量分类群中都已检测到该现象,这使得人们认为它是一种广泛存在的保守性状,并尝试使理论与这些观察结果相协调。我们提出另一种观点:显著的PRLS看似广泛分布,实则是研究方法不足导致的假象。

  2. 传统上,PRLS的测量方式是计算每个个体最后一次分娩与死亡之间的时间间隔,并排除那些该间隔较短的个体。然后将此测量值的平均值作为种群值计算得出。我们发现这种传统的种群测量方法(我们记为PrT)计算不一致、存在固有偏差、与总体寿命高度相关、对于PRLS在种群生活史中的重要性缺乏信息、无法使用最常见的相关数据形式且没有现实的零假设。使用经过修改以确保零假设成立的数据,我们发现PrT的假阳性率为0.47。

  3. 我们提出一种使用生命表方法的替代种群测量方法。繁殖后占比(PrR)是成年后处于繁殖后阶段的年份占成年后总年份的比例。我们简要推导了PrR并讨论了其性质。我们基于生存和繁殖力同时且成比例下降的零假设进行了人口统计学模拟,以根据种群的年龄特异性率得出PrR的零分布。

  4. 在一个示例分析中,我们使用了84个人类和非人类灵长类种群的数据,证明了PrR能够体现人工死亡率保护以及人类属性对PRLS的影响。发现在广泛条件下,所有人类种群的PrR都高于我们样本中的任何非人类灵长类动物。我们发现了人工保护的显著影响,但处于最不利条件下的人类PrR仍大于0.3。

  5. PrT不应作为种群测量方法,仅在极为谨慎的情况下才可作为个体测量方法使用。鼓励使用PrR作为直观、统计有效且可相互比较的种群生活史测量方法。

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