美国 2009 年 H1N1 流感疫情：量化学校开学对繁殖数的影响。
The US 2009 A(H1N1) influenza epidemic: quantifying the impact of school openings on the reproductive number.
机构信息
From the aDepartment of Epidemiology, Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA; bDepartment of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA; and cDepartment of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY.
出版信息
Epidemiology. 2014 Mar;25(2):203-6. doi: 10.1097/EDE.0000000000000055.
Abstract
BACKGROUND
There is limited information on differences in the dynamics of influenza transmission during time periods when schools are open compared with periods when they are closed.
METHODS
Data on school openings, influenza surveillance, and absolute humidity were incorporated into a regression model to estimate the increase in the reproductive number for the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza pandemic associated with the opening of school in 10 US states.
RESULTS
The estimate for the average increase in the reproductive number for the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza pandemic associated with the beginning of the school year was 19.5% (95% credible interval = 10%-29%).
CONCLUSIONS
Whether schools are open or closed can have a major impact on community transmission dynamics of influenza.
摘要
背景
关于学校开放期间与关闭期间流感传播动态的差异，相关信息有限。
方法
将学校开放、流感监测和绝对湿度数据纳入回归模型，以估计与美国 10 个州的学校开学相关的 2009 年 A(H1N1)流感大流行的繁殖数增加情况。
结果
与学年开始相关的 2009 年 A(H1N1)流感大流行的繁殖数平均增加估计值为 19.5%（95%可信区间=10%-29%）。
结论
学校开放或关闭都可能对流感在社区的传播动态产生重大影响。
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