Ghorbani P, Strömmer L
Division of Surgery, Department of Clinical Science, Intervention and Technology (CLINTEC), Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden.
Acta Anaesthesiol Scand. 2018 Sep;62(8):1146-1153. doi: 10.1111/aas.13151. Epub 2018 May 24.
The wide disparity in the methodology of preventable death analysis has created a lack of comparability among previous studies. The guidelines for the peer review (PR) procedure suggest the inclusion of risk-adjustment methods to identify patients to review, that is, exclude non-preventable deaths (probability of survival [Ps] < 25%) or focus on preventable deaths (Ps > 50%). We aimed to, through PR process, (1) identify preventable death and errors committed in a level-I trauma centre, and (2) explore the use of different risk-adjustment methods as a complement.
A multidisciplinary committee reviewed all trauma patients, which died a trauma-related death, within 30 days of admission to Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, in the period of 2012-2016. Ps was calculated according to TRISS and NORMIT and their accuracy where compared.
Two hundred and ninety-eight deaths were identified and 252 were reviewed. The majority of deaths occurred between 1 and 7 days. Ten deaths (4.0%) were classified as preventable. Sixty-seven errors were identified in 53 (21.0%) deaths. The most common error was inappropriate treatment in all deaths (21 of 67) and in preventable deaths (5 of 13). Median Ps in non-preventable deaths was higher than the cut-off (<25%) and Ps-TRISS was almost twice as high as Ps-NORMIT (65% vs 33%, P < .001). Two clinically judged preventable deaths with Ps <25% would have been missed with both models. Median Ps in preventable deaths was above the cut-off (>50%) and higher with Ps-TRISS vs Ps-NORMIT (75% vs 58%, P < .001). Three and 4 clinically judged preventable deaths would have been missed, respectively, for TRISS and NORMIT, if using this cut-off.
Preventable deaths were commonly caused by clinical judgment errors in the early phases but death occurred late. Ps calculated with NORMIT was more accurate than TRISS in predicting mortality, but both perform poorly in identifying preventable and non-preventable deaths when applying the cut-offs. PR of all trauma death is still the golden standard in preventability analysis.
可预防死亡分析方法存在巨大差异,导致以往研究缺乏可比性。同行评审(PR)程序指南建议纳入风险调整方法来确定需评审的患者,即排除不可预防的死亡(生存概率[Ps]<25%)或关注可预防的死亡(Ps>50%)。我们旨在通过PR流程,(1)确定一级创伤中心发生的可预防死亡和错误,(2)探索使用不同风险调整方法作为补充。
一个多学科委员会审查了2012年至2016年期间在斯德哥尔摩卡罗林斯卡大学医院入院30天内死于创伤相关死亡的所有创伤患者。根据TRISS和NORMIT计算Ps,并比较它们的准确性。
共确定298例死亡,其中252例接受了评审。大多数死亡发生在1至7天之间。10例死亡(4.0%)被归类为可预防死亡。在53例(21.0%)死亡中发现67处错误。最常见的错误是在所有死亡(67例中的21例)和可预防死亡(13例中的5例)中治疗不当。不可预防死亡的Ps中位数高于临界值(<25%),且Ps-TRISS几乎是Ps-NORMIT的两倍(65%对33%,P<.001)。两种模型都会遗漏两例临床判定的Ps<25%的可预防死亡。可预防死亡的Ps中位数高于临界值(>50%),且Ps-TRISS高于Ps-NORMIT(75%对58%,P<.001)。如果使用此临界值,TRISS和NORMIT将分别遗漏3例和4例临床判定的可预防死亡。
可预防死亡通常由早期临床判断错误引起,但死亡发生较晚。用NORMIT计算得出的Ps在预测死亡率方面比TRISS更准确,但在应用临界值时,两者在识别可预防和不可预防死亡方面表现都很差。对所有创伤死亡进行PR仍然是可预防性分析的金标准。