人类寿命的动态上限。

The dynamic upper limit of human lifespan.

作者信息

Newman Saul, Easteal Simon

机构信息

John Curtin School of Medical Research, Australian National University, Acton, ACT, 2601, Australia.

出版信息

F1000Res. 2017 Apr 26;6:569. doi: 10.12688/f1000research.11438.2. eCollection 2017.

DOI:10.12688/f1000research.11438.2

PMID:30026910

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6039923/

Abstract

We respond to claims by Dong . that human lifespan is limited below 125 years. Using the log-linear increase in mortality rates with age to predict the upper limits of human survival we find, in contrast to Dong ., that the limit to human lifespan is historically flexible and increasing. This discrepancy can be explained by Dong .'s use of data with variable sample sizes, age-biased rounding errors, and log(0) instead of log(1) values in linear regressions. Addressing these issues eliminates the proposed 125-year upper limit to human lifespan.

摘要

我们回应了董（音译）的观点，即人类寿命被限制在125岁以下。与董的观点相反，我们利用死亡率随年龄呈对数线性增长来预测人类生存的上限，发现人类寿命的上限在历史上是可变的且在增加。这种差异可以通过董在分析中使用样本量可变的数据、存在年龄偏差的舍入误差以及在线性回归中使用log(0)而非log(1)值来解释。解决这些问题后，所提出的人类寿命125岁上限就不复存在了。