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-蜜蜂行为:一个用于在个体、蜂群、种群和群落层面探索大黄蜂数量下降多因素成因的系统模型。

-BEEHAVE: A systems model for exploring multifactorial causes of bumblebee decline at individual, colony, population and community level.

作者信息

Becher Matthias A, Twiston-Davies Grace, Penny Tim D, Goulson Dave, Rotheray Ellen L, Osborne Juliet L

机构信息

Environment and Sustainability Institute University of Exeter, Penryn Campus Cornwall UK.

School of Biological and Chemical Sciences Queen Mary University of London London UK.

出版信息

J Appl Ecol. 2018 Nov;55(6):2790-2801. doi: 10.1111/1365-2664.13165. Epub 2018 May 22.

Abstract

World-wide declines in pollinators, including bumblebees, are attributed to a multitude of stressors such as habitat loss, resource availability, emerging viruses and parasites, exposure to pesticides, and climate change, operating at various spatial and temporal scales. Disentangling individual and interacting effects of these stressors, and understanding their impact at the individual, colony and population level are a challenge for systems ecology. Empirical testing of all combinations and contexts is not feasible. A mechanistic multilevel systems model (individual-colony-population-community) is required to explore resilience mechanisms of populations and communities under stress.We present a model which can simulate the growth, behaviour and survival of six UK bumblebee species living in any mapped landscape. -BEEHAVE simulates, in an agent-based approach, the colony development of bumblebees in a realistic landscape to study how multiple stressors affect bee numbers and population dynamics. We provide extensive documentation, including sensitivity analysis and validation, based on data from literature. The model is freely available, has flexible settings and includes a user manual to ensure it can be used by researchers, farmers, policy-makers, NGOs or other interested parties.Model outcomes compare well with empirical data for individual foraging behaviour, colony growth and reproduction, and estimated nest densities.Simulating the impact of reproductive depression caused by pesticide exposure shows that the complex feedback mechanisms captured in this model predict higher colony resilience to stress than suggested by a previous, simpler model. . The -BEEHAVE model represents a significant step towards predicting bumblebee population dynamics in a spatially explicit way. It enables researchers to understand the individual and interacting effects of the multiple stressors affecting bumblebee survival and the feedback mechanisms that may buffer a colony against environmental stress, or indeed lead to spiralling colony collapse. The model can be used to aid the design of field experiments, for risk assessments, to inform conservation and farming decisions and for assigning bespoke management recommendations at a landscape scale.

摘要

包括大黄蜂在内的传粉者在全球范围内数量减少,这归因于多种压力因素,如栖息地丧失、资源可利用性、新出现的病毒和寄生虫、接触杀虫剂以及气候变化,这些因素在不同的空间和时间尺度上发挥作用。厘清这些压力因素的个体影响和相互作用,并了解它们在个体、蜂群和种群层面的影响,是系统生态学面临的一项挑战。对所有组合和情况进行实证检验是不可行的。需要一个多层面的机制系统模型(个体 - 蜂群 - 种群 - 群落)来探索受压力影响的种群和群落的恢复力机制。我们提出了一个模型,该模型可以模拟生活在任何已绘制地图的景观中的六种英国大黄蜂物种的生长、行为和生存情况。-BEEHAVE以基于主体的方法模拟现实景观中大黄蜂的蜂群发展,以研究多种压力因素如何影响蜜蜂数量和种群动态。我们基于文献数据提供了广泛的文档,包括敏感性分析和验证。该模型免费提供,具有灵活的设置,并包括一份用户手册,以确保研究人员、农民、政策制定者、非政府组织或其他感兴趣的各方都能使用。模型结果与个体觅食行为、蜂群生长和繁殖以及估计的巢穴密度的实证数据比较吻合。模拟农药暴露导致的繁殖抑制影响表明,该模型中捕捉到的复杂反馈机制预测蜂群对压力的恢复力比之前一个更简单的模型所表明的要高。-BEEHAVE模型朝着以空间明确的方式预测大黄蜂种群动态迈出了重要一步。它使研究人员能够理解影响大黄蜂生存的多种压力因素的个体影响和相互作用,以及可能缓冲蜂群免受环境压力或实际上导致蜂群螺旋式崩溃的反馈机制。该模型可用于辅助野外实验设计、进行风险评估、为保护和农业决策提供信息,以及在景观尺度上给出定制的管理建议。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/aae0/6221040/c42fc0730967/JPE-55-2790-g001.jpg

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