Estimated Contributions of Emissions Controls, Meteorological Factors, Population Growth, and Changes in Baseline Mortality to Reductions in Ambient [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]-Related Mortality in China, 2013-2017.

BACKGROUND

In 2013, China released the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (Action Plan), which set the roadmap for national air pollution control actions for the period of 2013 to 2017. A decrease in the fine particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text]) concentration may lead to a substantial benefit for human health.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to quantify the relative contributions four factors: emission reductions, changed meteorology, population growth, and a change in baseline mortality rates to the reduced [Formula: see text]-related mortality ([Formula: see text]-mortality) during the 2013-2017 period and evaluate the importance of emission controls for human health protection in China.

METHODS

The integrated exposure-response function was adopted to estimate the chronic health effects of [Formula: see text]. The annual [Formula: see text] concentrations were estimated from chemical transport model simulations combined with surface observations for 2013 and 2017. Relative contributions to [Formula: see text]-mortality from emission reductions and the three factors were individually quantified through scenario analysis.

RESULTS

The estimated total [Formula: see text]-mortality in China was 1.389 million [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.005 million, 1.631 million] in 2013 but was substantially reduced to 1.102 million (95% CI: 0.755 million, 1.337 million) in 2017. Emission controls contributed 88.7% to this reduction in [Formula: see text]-mortality, while changed meteorology, the change in baseline mortality rates, and population growth during 2013-2017 contributed 9.6, 3.8, and [Formula: see text], respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The implementation of the Action Plan has significantly reduced the [Formula: see text] concentration in regions of China where population density is high, dominating the decline in [Formula: see text]-mortality during 2013-2017. However, the health burden of [Formula: see text] pollution in China is still extremely high compared with that in other developed countries. An aggressive air pollution control strategy should be implemented in densely populated areas to further reduce the health burden. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4157.