Independent scholar, Paris, France.
Rejuvenation Res. 2020 Feb;23(1):19-47. doi: 10.1089/rej.2019.2298.
Jeanne Calment's (JC) still unmatched validated human life span of 122 years and 164 days, over 3 years longer than any other, surprises many. While her case is broadly accepted as a golden standard of validation, her record age still raises skepticism among some. The probability of such a record to be achieved by someone born in the second half of the 19th century, in the world population documentarily eligible to age validation, and also in the G7 countries, can be calculated by applying some logistic and Gompertz mortality models to these populations, taken, respectively, from the age of 117 and of 100. This probability appears substantial, respectively, 7.1% and 4.7%, when using a four-parameter logistic model, which I validated on the observed survivals of centenarians until the age of 118. A 3-year interval with the second oldest is then expected. The known facts and documents constitute consistent evidence that JC died at 122: regular official records during her life, her verified memories from her 19th century life, her usage of specialized terms and of an abbreviation system specific to this period of time, photographs, her signature and handwriting, testimonies from numerous witnesses of her life, plus the expertise of gerontologists. Meanwhile, nothing contradicts her record: the daughter/mother identity swap hypothesis appears unrealistic and not supported by any evidence; especially no plausible motive can be found, on the contrary. The latest article, which defends this hypothesis, "Bayesian assessment of the longevity of JC," contains major errors, making its result subjective and invalid. The study of JC's genealogical tree on six generations, using longevity performance and total immediate ancestor longevity indicators, shows how, in two centuries, her ancestors have been living 10% longer on average at each generation, increasingly overperforming their French 25-year-old contemporaries, from around 7% in the early 18th century to 43% for her parents, and up to 56% for her older brother and 80% for herself, which suggests a progressive concentration of longevity factors. In addition to the hereditary factors, JC's personal overperformance suggests also some environmental factors, and indeed many are known. Further knowledge could be obtained by studying JC's existing blood and DNA samples: those could not only provide an additional proof of her authenticity, but more importantly could be of immense contribution for understanding deeper the factors and patterns of her longevity, and more generally the longevity and aging processes in humans in general as well.
让娜·卡尔芒(Jeanne Calment,JC)仍未被打破的 122 岁 164 天的经证实的人类寿命,比其他任何人都长了 3 年多,这让许多人感到惊讶。虽然她的案例被广泛认为是验证的黄金标准,但她的记录年龄仍然让一些人持怀疑态度。在有资格进行年龄验证的 19 世纪出生的、世界人口中记录在案的、以及 G7 国家中,有人能达到这种记录的概率,可以通过应用一些逻辑和 Gompertz 死亡率模型来计算,这些模型分别取自 117 岁和 100 岁的人群。当使用我在观察到的百岁老人的生存数据上验证过的四参数逻辑模型时,这种概率分别为 7.1%和 4.7%,这是合理的。在第二个最年长的人的情况下,预计会有 3 年的间隔。已知的事实和文件构成了一致的证据,证明 JC 确实在 122 岁去世了:她一生中的常规官方记录、她对 19 世纪生活的经证实的记忆、她对特定于那个时期的专业术语和缩写系统的使用、照片、她的签名和笔迹、她一生的众多见证人的证词,再加上老年学家的专业知识。同时,没有任何证据与她的记录相矛盾:母女身份互换的假设似乎不现实,也没有任何证据支持;相反,找不到任何合理的动机。最近的一篇捍卫这个假设的文章,“对 JC 长寿的贝叶斯评估”,包含了重大错误,使其结果主观且无效。对她六代人的家谱树进行的研究,使用了长寿表现和总直系祖先长寿指标,表明在两个世纪里,她的祖先每一代的平均寿命延长了 10%,逐渐超过了他们法国同时代的 25 岁同龄人,从 18 世纪初的约 7%到她父母的 43%,再到她哥哥的 56%和她自己的 80%,这表明长寿因素在逐渐集中。除了遗传因素外,JC 的个人超长寿命还表明了一些环境因素的影响,而事实上,人们已经知道了很多环境因素。通过研究 JC 现有的血液和 DNA 样本,可以进一步了解:这些样本不仅可以提供她真实性的额外证明,而且更重要的是,可以为深入了解她长寿的因素和模式,以及更广泛地了解人类的长寿和衰老过程做出巨大贡献。