Population model-based analysis of the memory B-cell response following belimumab therapy in the treatment of systemic lupus erythematosus.

Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is an autoimmune disease characterized by B-cell hyperactivity and breach of tolerance. Autoreactive memory B cells, which have a decreased activation threshold and the ability to survive in absence of antigen, are believed to contribute to chronicity in autoimmune diseases like SLE. Belimumab, the first approved biological treatment of active SLE and lupus nephritis, reduces B cells dependent on B-lymphocyte stimulator protein (BLyS) for survival, whereas memory B cells are spared; several studies reported circulating memory B-cell concentrations increase following BLyS neutralization. This analysis investigated the effect of dose, demographics, and disease status on memory B-cell response after starting belimumab treatment. Population pharmacodynamic models were fitted to a pooled dataset from seven belimumab SLE trials. The optimal model was selected using maximum likelihood methods and was then refit to the data using Bayesian analysis and used to simulate memory B-cell response by belimumab dose and covariate subgroups. At the belimumab approved doses (10 mg/kg intravenously every 4 weeks, 200 mg subcutaneously every week), circulatory memory B cells increase in the first 4-8 weeks after belimumab initiation, typically returning to baseline levels over 76 weeks. The model analysis suggested belimumab stimulates memory B-cell transition from lymphoid and/or inflamed tissues into the circulation, rather than inhibiting trafficking in the reverse direction. Baseline BLyS and anti-double-stranded deoxyribonucleic acid antibody concentrations were statistically identifiable covariates of memory B-cell response, although their impact on predicting size and response duration was small.