Exploring greenhouse gas emissions pathways and stakeholder perspectives: In search of circular economy policy innovation for waste paper management and carbon neutrality in Hong Kong.

Waste paper disposed in landfills notably contributes to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and impedes more sustainable, circular alternatives, such as recycling. In Hong Kong, this unsustainable approach is currently dominant as 68% of waste paper products are treated in landfills in 2020. To contextualize the impact of local waste paper management and explore mitigation potentials of circular alternatives, this paper develops a quantitative assessment framework around GHG emissions development trajectories. Combining guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), national GHG inventories, and local parameters from life cycle analysis, five GHG emissions projections were simulated along the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) until 2060. Most recent baselines indicate that Hong Kong's current waste paper treatment generated 638,360 tons CO-eq in 2020, comprising 1,821,040 tons CO-eq from landfill and 671,320 tons CO-eq from recycling, and -1,854,000 tons CO-eq from primary material replacement. Proceeding along a Business-as-Usual scenario under SSP5, GHG emissions will dramatically increase to a net 1,072,270 tons CO-eq by 2060, whereas a recycling-intensive scenario will lead to a net saving of -4,323,190 tons CO-eq. To complement the quantitative evidence on the benefits of waste paper recycling, field research was conducted to explore the feasibility of circular policy innovation from the perspective of recycling stakeholders. These empirical qualitative and quantitative findings from stakeholders' business routines and material transactions provide crucial indications for policy and institutional innovation: Essentially, for Hong Kong to improve waste paper recycling capacities and facilitate a circular economy (CE), local stakeholders require support via fiscal policy measures (financial subsidies or tax reductions) and infrastructure improvements (delivery access and material storage). In sum, this study employs a novel analytical framework combining original qualitative and quantitative evidence to provide policy innovation towards circular, GHG emission-saving waste paper management.