Massachusetts General Hospital, Department of Emergency Medicine, Boston, MA, USA.
Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
Nat Med. 2024 Apr;30(4):1118-1126. doi: 10.1038/s41591-024-02833-x. Epub 2024 Feb 29.
Climate change is intensifying extreme weather events. Yet a systematic analysis of post-disaster healthcare utilization and outcomes for severe weather and climate disasters, as tracked by the US government, is lacking. Following exposure to 42 US billion-dollar weather disasters (severe storm, flood, flood/severe storm, tropical cyclone and winter storm) between 2011 and 2016, we used a difference-in-differences (DID) approach to quantify changes in the rates of emergency department (ED) visits, nonelective hospitalizations and mortality between fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries in affected compared to matched control counties in post-disaster weeks 1, 1-2 and 3-6. Overall, disasters were associated with higher rates of ED utilization in affected counties in post-disaster week 1 (DID of 1.22% (95% CI, 0.20% to 2.25%; P < 0.020)) through week 2. Nonelective hospitalizations were unchanged. Mortality was higher in affected counties in week 1 (DID of 1.40% (95% CI, 0.08% to 2.74%; P = 0.037)) and persisted for 6 weeks. Counties with the greatest loss and damage experienced greater increases in ED and mortality rates compared to all affected counties. Thus, billion-dollar weather disasters are associated with excess ED visits and mortality in Medicare beneficiaries. Tracking these outcomes is important for adaptation that protects patients and communities, health system resilience and policy.
气候变化正在加剧极端天气事件。然而,对于美国政府追踪的严重天气和气候灾害后的医疗保健利用和结果,缺乏系统的分析。在 2011 年至 2016 年期间,我们在美国政府追踪的 42 次美国十亿美元天气灾害(严重风暴、洪水、洪水/严重风暴、热带气旋和冬季风暴)中暴露后,我们使用差异(DID)方法来量化受灾地区和匹配对照组在灾难后第 1、1-2 和 3-6 周内急诊就诊率、非选择性住院率和死亡率的变化。总体而言,灾难与受灾县在受灾后第 1 周(DID 为 1.22%(95%CI,0.20%至 2.25%;P<0.020))的急诊就诊率升高有关。非选择性住院率没有变化。受灾县的死亡率在第 1 周更高(DID 为 1.40%(95%CI,0.08%至 2.74%;P=0.037)),并持续了 6 周。受灾最严重的县与所有受灾县相比,急诊就诊率和死亡率的上升幅度更大。因此,十亿美元的天气灾害与医疗保险受益人的急诊就诊率和死亡率过高有关。跟踪这些结果对于保护患者和社区、医疗系统弹性和政策的适应非常重要。