The value of presepsin and procalcitonin as prognostic factors for mortality in patients with alcoholic liver cirrhosis and acute on chronic liver failure.

Acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) is typically characterized by a rapid progression of liver failure in patients with liver cirrhosis and it is triggered by a precipitant factor, usually a bacterial infection (BI). Considering the low accuracy of the inflammation biomarkers in liver cirrhosis, presepsin and procalcitonin have demonstrated a good diagnostic performance for BI. Understanding the key prognostic factors that influence patient outcomes can significantly impact clinical decision-making and improve patient care in ACLF which can lead to lower mortality rates. To evaluate the prognostic factors associated with 30-day mortality in patients with alcohol-related liver cirrhosis and ACLF. This retrospective study on 227 patients diagnosed with ACLF and alcohol-related liver cirrhosis analyzed the prognostic role of presepsin and procalcitonin serum levels. The survival analysis according to the grade of ACLF showed that more than 80% of patients with ACLF grade 1 survived after 30 days, with a mean estimated time of death of 29 ±0.44 days (95 % CI: 28.17-29.92) compared to ACLF grade 2 (24.9±1.064 days; 95 % CI: 22.82-26.99) and ACLF grade 3 (21.05±1.17 days; 95 % CI: 18.75-23.34), with a mean overall survival on entire cohort of 25.69±0.52 days (95 % CI: 24.65-26.73). Presepsin (OR: 4.008, CI 95:3.130-6.456, p=0.001) and procalcitonin (OR: 3.666, CI 95:2.312-5.813, p=0.001) were the most significant factors associated with 30-day mortality. In ACLF grade 2, presepsin provides a better prediction of mortality at the cutoff value of 1050 pg/mL (Sensitivity 72%, Specificity 69%) than procalcitonin (AUC=0.727 95% CI 0.594-0.860, p<0.002) whereas in ACLF grade 3, a cutoff of 1450 pg/mL (Sensitivity 89%, Specificity 91%) presepsin had a more significant accuracy of mortality prediction (AUC=0.93 95% CI 0.81-0.99, p<0.001) than procalcitonin (AUC=0.731 95% CI 0.655-0.807, p<0.001). ACLF is associated with a high mortality rate and the risk of death increases with the grade of ACLF. Presepsin and procalcitonin serum levels are good prognostic factors for 30-day mortality and should be used in clinical practice to stratify the risk and provide and early and efficient treatment in patients with ACLF.