From chocolate to palm oil: The future of Indonesia's cocoa plantations.

Indonesia is the world's third largest cocoa producer, but production is decreasing since 2011. We revisited cocoa farmers for an environmental assessment in Luwu Timur, Sulawesi, 7 months after a socio-economic survey on cocoa certification outcomes and observed many cocoa plantations being converted into oil palm and maize. Including our field data as well as secondary data on commodity prices and yields, we outline reasons for cocoa conversion, potential consequences for biodiversity, and assess the future outlook for the Indonesian cocoa sector. Low cocoa productivity, volatile cocoa prices and higher revenue for oil palm, among others, drive land-use change. If shade trees are cut during cocoa conversion, it may have negative implications for biodiversity. Solutions to low soil fertility, omnipresent pests and diseases, and stable producer prices are needed to increase profitability of cocoa and prevent conversion of cocoa agroforests to oil palm monocultures.