Akram Afshin, Tahir Arifa, Alam Asifa, Waheed Anum
Department of Environmental Sciences, Lahore College for Women University (LCWU), Lahore, Pakistan.
Global Studies Department, IGHS, Government College University, Lahore, Pakistan.
PLoS One. 2025 Mar 18;20(3):e0315398. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0315398. eCollection 2025.
The world is facing substantial threats from climate change such as extreme weather events, floods, biodiversity loss, sea-level rise, and ecosystem degradation. The objective of this study is to assess the livelihood vulnerability index of communities in flood-prone areas, specifically investigating the reasons behind their vulnerability, their income sources, and the impact of flooding on economic activities. Pakistan is an agrarian country and known to be a climate vulnerable country, flood possess higher threat to rural livelihood. Mianwali district of Punjab, Pakistan was selected as the study area because it is among the poorest districts, and is most severely impacted district during 2010 catastrophe. The study employed qualitative methods like focus group discussions, interviews, and transect walks, alongside quantitative approaches such as the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI). Primary data was collected from 200 households through structured questionnaires by applying simple random sampling technique. Results demonstrated that the overall vulnerability of the local community of Mianwali to flood was high 0.4 score (out of 5) as per Livelihood Vulnerability Index criteria. It was revealed that the exposure factor (0.424) significantly influenced vulnerability and communities had low adaptive capacity (0.077) in the face of flood hazard. While the sensitivity of Mianwali's community to flood scored 0.088. These findings are crucial for policymakers to assess baseline causes of livelihood vulnerability and formulate adaptation for other rural communities. It can be concluded that addressing these factors effectively in planning strategies may mitigate vulnerability and increase communities' capacity to deal with potential flooding.
世界正面临着气候变化带来的重大威胁,如极端天气事件、洪水、生物多样性丧失、海平面上升和生态系统退化。本研究的目的是评估易受洪水影响地区社区的生计脆弱性指数,具体调查其脆弱性背后的原因、收入来源以及洪水对经济活动的影响。巴基斯坦是一个农业国家,也是一个气候脆弱的国家,洪水对农村生计构成了更高的威胁。巴基斯坦旁遮普省的米安瓦利地区被选为研究区域,因为它是最贫困的地区之一,并且在2010年的灾难中受影响最为严重。该研究采用了焦点小组讨论、访谈和横断面调查等定性方法,以及生计脆弱性指数(LVI)等定量方法。通过简单随机抽样技术,从200户家庭中通过结构化问卷收集了原始数据。结果表明,根据生计脆弱性指数标准,米安瓦利当地社区对洪水的总体脆弱性较高,得分为0.4(满分5分)。研究发现,暴露因素(0.424)对脆弱性有显著影响,并且社区在面对洪水灾害时的适应能力较低(0.077)。而米安瓦利社区对洪水的敏感性得分为0.088。这些发现对于政策制定者评估生计脆弱性的基线原因以及为其他农村社区制定适应措施至关重要。可以得出结论,在规划策略中有效解决这些因素可能会减轻脆弱性,并提高社区应对潜在洪水的能力。