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肝细胞癌骨转移患者总生存的列线图预测:一项基于监测、流行病学和最终结果(SEER)数据库的回顾性队列研究

Nomogram prediction of overall survival in patients with bone metastases from hepatocellular carcinoma: a SEER-based retrospective cohort study.

作者信息

Song Qingliang, Kong Yilin, Zheng Chuiyang, Pi Dajin, Fan Wen, Zhen Jianwei, Pan Jinyue, Liu Lianghao, Huang Siyuan, Zhou Fangyu, Yang Qinhe, Zhang Yupei, Pan Maoxing

机构信息

School of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China.

The Second Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou, University of Chinese Medicine (Guangdong Provincial Hospital of Chinese Medicine), Guangzhou, China.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 1;15(1):21767. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-06665-8.

Abstract

This study aimed to construct a nomogram for predicting overall survival in patients with bone metastases (BM) from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), leveraging data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database spanning the period from 2010 to 2015. The patient cohort was randomly partitioned into a training set (n = 338) and a validation set (n = 145). Kaplan-Meier analysis and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression identified marital status, liver surgery, and radiotherapy/chemotherapy as significant prognostic factors (P ≤ 0.05), which were subsequently integrated into the nomogram. The nomogram exhibited a concordance index of 0.72 (95% confidence interval: 0.70-0.75) and demonstrated robust calibration between predicted and observed survival rates. This nomogram has the potential to accurately forecast prognosis and assist clinicians in formulating appropriate treatment strategies for patients with HCC bone metastasis.

摘要

本研究旨在利用2010年至2015年监测、流行病学和最终结果(SEER)数据库的数据,构建一个用于预测肝细胞癌(HCC)骨转移(BM)患者总生存期的列线图。将患者队列随机分为训练集(n = 338)和验证集(n = 145)。Kaplan-Meier分析和多变量Cox比例风险回归确定婚姻状况、肝脏手术和放疗/化疗为显著的预后因素(P≤0.05),随后将这些因素纳入列线图。该列线图的一致性指数为0.72(95%置信区间:0.70 - 0.75),并在预测生存率和观察生存率之间显示出良好的校准。该列线图有潜力准确预测预后,并协助临床医生为HCC骨转移患者制定合适的治疗策略。

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