动态共振可以解释流感流行的季节性。
Dynamical resonance can account for seasonality of influenza epidemics.
作者信息
Dushoff Jonathan, Plotkin Joshua B, Levin Simon A, Earn David J D
机构信息
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA.
出版信息
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2004 Nov 30;101(48):16915-6. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0407293101. Epub 2004 Nov 19.
Abstract
Influenza incidence exhibits strong seasonal fluctuations in temperate regions throughout the world, concentrating the mortality and morbidity burden of the disease into a few months each year. The cause of influenza's seasonality has remained elusive. Here we show that the large oscillations in incidence may be caused by undetectably small seasonal changes in the influenza transmission rate that are amplified by dynamical resonance.
摘要
在全球温带地区，流感发病率呈现出强烈的季节性波动，将该疾病的死亡率和发病率负担集中在每年的几个月内。流感季节性的原因一直难以捉摸。在此，我们表明发病率的大幅波动可能是由流感传播率中难以察觉的微小季节性变化引起的，这些变化通过动态共振被放大。
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