延缓衰老可能会带来巨大的健康和经济效益，值得医学研究新的关注。
Substantial health and economic returns from delayed aging may warrant a new focus for medical research.
出版信息
Health Aff (Millwood). 2013 Oct;32(10):1698-705. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2013.0052.
Recent scientific advances suggest that slowing the aging process (senescence) is now a realistic goal. Yet most medical research remains focused on combating individual diseases. Using the Future Elderly Model--a microsimulation of the future health and spending of older Americans--we compared optimistic "disease specific" scenarios with a hypothetical "delayed aging" scenario in terms of the scenarios' impact on longevity, disability, and major entitlement program costs. Delayed aging could increase life expectancy by an additional 2.2 years, most of which would be spent in good health. The economic value of delayed aging is estimated to be $7.1 trillion over fifty years. In contrast, addressing heart disease and cancer separately would yield diminishing improvements in health and longevity by 2060--mainly due to competing risks. Delayed aging would greatly increase entitlement outlays, especially for Social Security. However, these changes could be offset by increasing the Medicare eligibility age and the normal retirement age for Social Security. Overall, greater investment in research to delay aging appears to be a highly efficient way to forestall disease, extend healthy life, and improve public health.
最近的科学进展表明，减缓衰老进程（衰老）现在是一个现实的目标。然而，大多数医学研究仍然集中在对抗个别疾病上。我们使用未来老年人模型——对美国老年人未来健康和支出的微观模拟——将乐观的“疾病特定”情景与假设的“延缓衰老”情景进行了比较，就这些情景对寿命、残疾和主要福利计划成本的影响进行了比较。延缓衰老可以使预期寿命额外增加 2.2 年，其中大部分时间将处于健康状态。预计延缓衰老在五十年内的经济价值为 7.1 万亿美元。相比之下，分别解决心脏病和癌症问题，到 2060 年，对健康和寿命的改善将逐渐减少——主要是由于存在竞争风险。延缓衰老将大大增加福利支出，特别是社会保障。然而，这些变化可以通过提高医疗保险资格年龄和社会保障的正常退休年龄来抵消。总的来说，更多地投资于延缓衰老的研究似乎是一种预防疾病、延长健康寿命和改善公共健康的高效方式。
Zotero 插件