2010-2030 年，澳大利亚 45-64 岁人群中因慢性病导致的丧失生产性生命年。
Lost productive life years caused by chronic conditions in Australians aged 45-64 years, 2010-2030.
机构信息
University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW
University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW.
出版信息
Med J Aust. 2015 Sep 21;203(6):260.e1-6. doi: 10.5694/mja15.00132.
OBJECTIVES
To estimate (1) productive life years (PLYs) lost because of chronic conditions in Australians aged 45-64 years from 2010 to 2030, and (2) the impact of this loss on gross domestic product (GDP) over the same period.
DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A microsimulation model, Health&WealthMOD2030, was used to project lost PLYs caused by chronic conditions from 2010 to 2030. The base population consisted of respondents aged 45-64 years to the Australian Bureau of Statistics Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers 2003 and 2009. The national impact of lost PLYs was assessed with Treasury's GDP equation.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES
Lost PLYs due to chronic disease at 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030 (ie, whole life years lost because of chronic disease); the national impact of lost PLYs at the same time points (GDP loss caused by PLYs); the effects of population growth, labour force trends and chronic disease trends on lost PLYs and GDP at each time point.
RESULTS
Using Health&WealthMOD2030, we estimated a loss of 347,000 PLYs in 2010; this was projected to increase to 459,000 in 2030 (32.28% increase over 20 years). The leading chronic conditions associated with premature exits from the labour force were back problems, arthritis and mental and behavioural problems. The percentage increase in the number of PLYs lost by those aged 45-64 years was greater than that of population growth for this age group (32.28% v 27.80%). The strongest driver of the increase in lost PLYs was population growth (accounting for 89.18% of the increase), followed by chronic condition trends (8.28%).
CONCLUSION
Our study estimates an increase of 112 000 lost PLYs caused by chronic illness in older workers in Australia between 2010 and 2030, with the most rapid growth projected to occur in men aged 55-59 years and in women aged 60-64 years. The national impact of this lost labour force participation on GDP was estimated to be $37.79 billion in 2010, increasing to $63.73 billion in 2030.
目的
估计（1）2010 年至 2030 年澳大利亚 45-64 岁人群因慢性病而丧失的生产性寿命年数（PLYs）；（2）在此期间PLY 丧失对国内生产总值（GDP）的影响。
设计、地点和参与者：使用健康与财富模型 2030 对 2010 年至 2030 年由慢性病引起的 PLY 丧失进行预测。基础人群由澳大利亚统计局残疾、老龄化和护理调查 2003 年和 2009 年的 45-64 岁受访者组成。使用财政部的 GDP 方程评估全国 PLY 丧失的影响。
主要观察指标
2010 年、2015 年、2020 年、2025 年和 2030 年因慢性病丧失的 PLYs（即因慢性病而丧失的整个寿命年数）；同期 PLY 丧失对 GDP 的影响（因 PLY 丧失而导致的 GDP 损失）；人口增长、劳动力趋势和慢性病趋势对各时点 PLY 丧失和 GDP 的影响。
结果
使用健康与财富模型 2030，我们估计 2010 年丧失 347000 个 PLY；预计到 2030 年将增加到 459000 个 PLY（20 年内增长 32.28%）。与过早退出劳动力有关的主要慢性疾病包括背部问题、关节炎以及精神和行为问题。45-64 岁人群丧失的 PLYs 数量增长百分比大于该年龄段的人口增长百分比（32.28%比 27.80%）。导致 PLY 丧失增加的最强驱动力是人口增长（占增长的 89.18%），其次是慢性疾病趋势（8.28%）。
结论
我们的研究估计，2010 年至 2030 年，澳大利亚老年工人因慢性病丧失的 PLYs 将增加 112000 个，预计 55-59 岁男性和 60-64 岁女性的增长速度最快。因劳动力参与丧失而对 GDP 的全国影响估计为 2010 年的 377.9 亿美元，到 2030 年增加到 637.3 亿美元。
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