Seligman Benjamin, Greenberg Gabi, Tuljapurkar Shripad
Department of Biology, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA 94305; School of Medicine, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA 94305;
Department of Statistics, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA 94305.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2016 Jul 26;113(30):8420-3. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1601112113. Epub 2016 Jul 11.
Efforts to understand the dramatic declines in mortality over the past century have focused on life expectancy. However, understanding changes in disparity in age of death is important to understanding mechanisms of mortality improvement and devising policy to promote health equity. We derive a novel decomposition of variance in age of death, a measure of inequality, and apply it to cause-specific contributions to the change in variance among the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States) from 1950 to 2010. We find that the causes of death that contributed most to declines in the variance are different from those that contributed most to increase in life expectancy; in particular, they affect mortality at younger ages. We also find that, for two leading causes of death [cancers and cardiovascular disease (CVD)], there are no consistent relationships between changes in life expectancy and variance either within countries over time or between countries. These results show that promoting health at younger ages is critical for health equity and that policies to control cancer and CVD may have differing implications for equity.
过去一个世纪以来,人们致力于理解死亡率显著下降的原因,主要聚焦于预期寿命。然而,了解死亡年龄差异的变化对于理解死亡率改善机制以及制定促进健康公平的政策至关重要。我们推导出一种全新的死亡年龄方差分解方法(一种不平等度量方法),并将其应用于七国集团(加拿大、法国、德国、意大利、日本、英国和美国)1950年至2010年间特定死因对方差变化的贡献分析。我们发现,对方差下降贡献最大的死因与对预期寿命增加贡献最大的死因不同;特别是,它们影响着较年轻年龄段的死亡率。我们还发现,对于两种主要死因[癌症和心血管疾病(CVD)],无论是在不同国家随时间的变化,还是在不同国家之间,预期寿命变化与方差变化之间都没有一致的关系。这些结果表明,在年轻时促进健康对于健康公平至关重要,而且控制癌症和心血管疾病的政策可能对公平性有不同的影响。