道路交通安全：经济、道路和人口因素的交叉影响分析
Road traffic safety: An analysis of the cross-effects of economic, road and population factors.
作者信息
Sun Li-Lu, Liu Dan, Chen Tian, He Meng-Ting
机构信息
School of Management, Chongqing University of Technology, Chongqing 400054, China.
School of Economy and Finance, Chongqing University of Technology, Chongqing 400054, China.
出版信息
Chin J Traumatol. 2019 Oct;22(5):290-295. doi: 10.1016/j.cjtee.2019.07.004. Epub 2019 Aug 23.
PURPOSE
Through the study of economic, traffic and population data related to road traffic accidents from 2004 to 2016, this paper analyzed the impact of various factors on road traffic casualties in China, and provided theoretical basis and suggestions for the road traffic safety management in China.
METHODS
Based on three aspects (economy, road, population) with five factors (gross domestic product (GDP), traffic investment, new vehicle ownership, new road mileage and newly increased population), this paper collected the relevant data of road traffic accidents in 31 provinces and cities in China, from 2004 to 2016. A panel model was established to carry out empirical analysis.
RESULTS
All factors have a significant impact on the number of road traffic accident casualties. When other factors remain unchanged, the number of road traffic casualties decreased by an average of 0.19 for every 100 million CNY increased in GDP. For every 100 million CNY increased in traffic investment, the number of road traffic casualties is reduced by an average of 13.93, indicating that economic development can improve road traffic safety to a certain extent. On the contrary, the growth in road mileage, new motor vehicles and population has increased the number of road traffic casualties. For every 10, 000 km of new road mileage, the number of traffic accident casualties has increased by 284.04. For every 10,000 newborns, the number of road traffic casualties increased by 7.33; as the number of new motor vehicles increases by 10,000, the number of road traffic casualties increased by an average of 21.77.
CONCLUSION
The increase of GDP and traffic investment can significantly reduce the number of road traffic casualties in China, which shows that economic development is essential to improve road traffic safety. The numbers of new road mileage, newly increased population and the new motor vehicles are positively correlated with the number of traffic accident casualties in traffic accidents, which reflects the existing problems in road design, distribution of road resources, and traffic management in China. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the economic and road related aspects to improve road traffic safety.
目的
通过研究2004年至2016年与道路交通事故相关的经济、交通和人口数据，分析各因素对我国道路交通事故伤亡情况的影响，为我国道路交通安全管理提供理论依据和建议。
方法
基于经济、道路、人口三个方面的五个因素（国内生产总值（GDP）、交通投资、新机动车保有量、新公路里程和新增人口），收集了2004年至2016年我国31个省市道路交通事故的相关数据。建立面板模型进行实证分析。
结果
各因素对道路交通事故伤亡人数均有显著影响。在其他因素不变的情况下，GDP每增加1亿元，道路交通事故伤亡人数平均减少0.19人。交通投资每增加1亿元，道路交通事故伤亡人数平均减少13.93人，表明经济发展在一定程度上可以提高道路交通安全。相反，公路里程、新机动车和人口的增长增加了道路交通事故伤亡人数。新公路里程每增加1万公里，交通事故伤亡人数增加284.04人。每新增1万名新生儿，道路交通事故伤亡人数增加7.33人；新机动车数量每增加1万辆，道路交通事故伤亡人数平均增加21.77人。
结论
GDP和交通投资的增加可显著减少我国道路交通事故伤亡人数，表明经济发展对提高道路交通安全至关重要。新公路里程、新增人口和新机动车数量与交通事故伤亡人数呈正相关，反映了我国道路设计、道路资源配置和交通管理方面存在的问题。因此，有必要在经济和道路相关方面加以改进，以提高道路交通安全。
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