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在澳大利亚与 COVID-19 共存:是时候采取新方法了。

Learning to live with COVID-19 in Australia: time for a new approach.

机构信息

Institute for Health Transformation, Deakin University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia;

出版信息

Public Health Res Pract. 2021 Sep 8;31(3):3132110. doi: 10.17061/phrp3132110.

Abstract

The emergence of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 has made Australia's 'COVID-zero' strategy unviable. As signalled by the Australian Government's National plan to transition Australia's national COVID-19 response, we need to plan a pathway forward for life beyond lockdown. However, this plan must be guided by long overdue discussions on our tolerance for serious illness, and hospital and intensive care unit capacity. The modelling that informs the national transition plan remains relevant, even with increases in case numbers, but one crucial thing that does change if cases continue to escalate is the effectiveness of test, trace and isolate models. As we move into suppression mode with higher rates of the population fully vaccinated, we will no longer need to find every case. This is among the many shifts in approach that will shape our transition by early 2022 to living with - and controlling - the disease.

摘要

德尔塔变异株的出现使澳大利亚的“新冠零确诊”战略变得不可行。正如澳大利亚政府的《澳大利亚全国新冠疫情应对过渡计划》所指出的,我们需要为封锁后的生活规划一条前进的道路。然而,这一计划必须以我们对重病、医院和重症监护病房能力的容忍度为指导,这方面的讨论早已应该进行。为国家过渡计划提供信息的模型仍然是相关的,即使病例数量有所增加,但如果病例继续上升,有一个关键因素确实会发生变化,那就是检测、追踪和隔离模型的有效性。随着越来越多的人群完全接种疫苗,我们进入抑制模式,将不再需要找到每一个病例。这是我们在 2022 年初过渡到与(并控制)这种疾病共存的许多方法转变之一。

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