College of Economics, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 May 7;19(9):5708. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19095708.
In recent years, the changing climate has become a major global concern, and it poses a higher threat to the agricultural sector around the world. Consequently, this study examines the impact of changing climate and technological progress on soybean yield in the 13 major provinces of China, and considers the role of agricultural credit, farming size, public investment, and power of agricultural machinery from 2000 to 2020. Fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) are applied to assess the long-run effect, while Dumitrescu and Hurlin's (2012) causality test is used to explore the short-run causalities among the studied variables. The results revealed that an increase in the annual mean temperature negatively and significantly affects soybean yield, while precipitation expressively helps augment soybean yield. Furthermore, technological factors such as chemical fertilizers accelerate soybean yield significantly, whereas pesticides negatively influence soybean yield. In addition, farming size, public investment, and power of agricultural machinery contribute remarkably to soybean yield. The causality results endorse that chemical fertilizers, pesticides used, agricultural credit, public investment, and power of agricultural machinery have bidirectional causality links with soybean yield. This study suggests several fruitful policy implications for sustainable soybean production in China.
近年来,气候变化已成为全球主要关注点之一,它对世界范围内的农业部门构成了更高的威胁。因此,本研究考察了气候变化和技术进步对 2000 年至 2020 年间中国 13 个主要省份大豆产量的影响,并考虑了农业信贷、耕种规模、公共投资和农业机械动力的作用。全矩普通最小二乘法(FMOLS)和动态普通最小二乘法(DOLS)被用于评估长期效应,而 Dumitrescu 和 Hurlin(2012)因果检验则用于探索研究变量之间的短期因果关系。结果表明,年平均气温的升高对大豆产量产生负向显著影响,而降水则显著有助于提高大豆产量。此外,化肥等技术因素显著促进了大豆产量的增长,而农药则对大豆产量产生负面影响。此外,耕种规模、公共投资和农业机械动力对大豆产量有显著贡献。因果关系结果表明,化肥、农药使用、农业信贷、公共投资和农业机械动力与大豆产量之间存在双向因果关系。本研究为中国可持续大豆生产提出了一些有益的政策建议。