Department of Economics & Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality, University of Copenhagen, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353, Copenhagen K, Denmark.
Danish Ministry of Health, Holbergsgade 6, DK-1057, Copenhagen K, Denmark.
Nat Commun. 2022 Sep 23;13(1):5573. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-33328-3.
In late 2021, the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant overtook the previously dominant Delta variant, but the extent to which this transition was driven by immune evasion or a change in the inherent transmissibility is currently unclear. We estimate SARS-CoV-2 transmission within Danish households during December 2021. Among 26,675 households (8,568 with the Omicron VOC), we identified 14,140 secondary infections within a 1-7-day follow-up period. The secondary attack rate was 29% and 21% in households infected with Omicron and Delta, respectively. For Omicron, the odds of infection were 1.10 (95%-CI: 1.00-1.21) times higher for unvaccinated, 2.38 (95%-CI: 2.23-2.54) times higher for fully vaccinated and 3.20 (95%-CI: 2.67-3.83) times higher for booster-vaccinated contacts compared to Delta. We conclude that the transition from Delta to Omicron VOC was primarily driven by immune evasiveness and to a lesser extent an inherent increase in the basic transmissibility of the Omicron variant.
2021 年末,奥密克戎 SARS-CoV-2 变体取代了之前占主导地位的德尔塔变体,但这种转变是由免疫逃逸还是固有传染性的变化驱动,目前尚不清楚。我们估计了 2021 年 12 月丹麦家庭内部的 SARS-CoV-2 传播。在 26675 个家庭(14140 个家庭感染了奥密克戎变异株)中,我们在 1-7 天的随访期内发现了 14140 例二次感染。奥密克戎和德尔塔感染家庭的二次感染率分别为 29%和 21%。对于奥密克戎,未接种疫苗的人感染的几率是德尔塔的 1.10 倍(95%可信区间:1.00-1.21),完全接种疫苗的人感染的几率是德尔塔的 2.38 倍(95%可信区间:2.23-2.54),加强针接种者感染的几率是德尔塔的 3.20 倍(95%可信区间:2.67-3.83)。我们的结论是,德尔塔向奥密克戎变异株的转变主要是由免疫逃逸驱动的,而奥密克戎变异株固有传染性的增加则是次要因素。