大流行缓解的悖论？大流行严重程度对社交距离政策影响的调节作用：文化价值观视角。

The paradox of pandemic mitigation? Moderating role of pandemic severity on the impact of social distancing policies: a cultural value perspective.

机构信息

Faculty of Psychology, Southwest University, No.2 Tiansheng Road, Chongqing, Beibei, China.

出版信息

Global Health. 2024 Feb 9;20(1):13. doi: 10.1186/s12992-024-01018-y.

DOI:10.1186/s12992-024-01018-y

PMID:38331903

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10854019/

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Social distancing policies were of utmost importance during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. These policies aimed to mitigate the severity of local outbreaks by altering public behavior. However, if the severity of the pandemic reduces, the impact of these policies on actual behavior may decrease. This study aims to examine, from a global perspective, whether the impact of social distancing policies on actual mobility is moderated by local pandemic severity and whether this moderating effect varies across cultural value contexts.

METHODS

We combined multiple publicly available global datasets for structural equation model analysis. 17,513 rows of data from 57 countries included in all databases were analyzed. Multilevel moderated moderation models were constructed to test the hypotheses.

RESULTS

More stringent policies in a region mean less regional mobility (β = -0.572, p < 0.001). However, the severity of local outbreaks negatively moderated this effect (β = -0.114, p < 0.001). When the pandemic was not severe, the influence of policy intensity on mobility weakened. Furthermore, based on Schwartz's cultural values theory, cultural values of autonomy (β = -0.109, p = 0.011), and egalitarianism (β = -0.108, p = 0.019) reinforced the moderating effect of pandemic severity. On the other hand, cultural values of embeddedness (β = 0.119, p = 0.006) and hierarchy (β = 0.096, p = 0.029) attenuated the moderating effect.

CONCLUSIONS

Social distancing policies aim to reduce the severity of local pandemics; however, the findings reveal that mitigating local pandemics may reduce their impact. Future policymakers should be alert to this phenomenon and introduce appropriate incentives to respond. The results also show that the moderating role of pandemic severity varies across cultures. When policies are promoted to deal with global crises, policymakers must seriously consider the resistance and potential incentives of cultural values.

摘要

背景

在 COVID-19 大流行的早期阶段，社交距离政策至关重要。这些政策旨在通过改变公众行为来减轻局部疫情的严重程度。然而，如果大流行的严重程度降低，这些政策对实际行为的影响可能会降低。本研究旨在从全球角度探讨社交距离政策对实际流动性的影响是否受到当地大流行严重程度的调节，以及这种调节作用是否因文化价值观背景而异。

方法

我们结合了多个公开的全球数据集进行结构方程模型分析。从所有数据库中分析了包含 57 个国家的 17513 行数据。构建多层次调节调节模型来检验假设。

结果

一个地区更严格的政策意味着该地区的流动性更低（β=-0.572，p<0.001）。然而，当地疫情的严重程度对此产生了负向调节作用（β=-0.114，p<0.001）。当大流行不严重时，政策强度对流动性的影响减弱。此外，基于施瓦茨的文化价值观理论，自主性（β=-0.109，p=0.011）和平等主义（β=-0.108，p=0.019）的文化价值观增强了大流行严重程度的调节作用。另一方面，嵌入性（β=0.119，p=0.006）和等级制度（β=0.096，p=0.029）的文化价值观减弱了调节作用。