Lung Cancer and Air Quality in a Large Urban County in the United States.

Lung cancer is the leading cancer-related killer in the United States. The incidence varies geographically and may be affected by environmental pollutants. Our goal was to determine associations within time series for specific air pollutants and lung cancer cases over a 33-year period in Wayne County, Michigan, controlling for population change. Lung cancer data for Wayne County were queried from the Michigan Cancer Registry from 1985 to 2018. Air pollutant data were obtained from the United States Environmental Protection Agency from 1980 to 2018. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models were estimated to investigate time lags in years between specific air pollution levels and lung cancer development. A total of 58,866 cases of lung cancer were identified. The mean age was 67.8 years. Females accounted for 53 percent of all cases in 2018 compared to 44 percent in 1985. Three major clusters of lung cancer incidence were detected with the most intense clusters in downtown Detroit and the heavily industrialized downriver area. Sulfur dioxide (SO) had the strongest statistically significant relationship with lung cancer, showing both short- and long-term effects (lag range, 1-15 years). Particulate matter (PM) (lag range, 1-3 years) and nitrogen dioxide (NO) (lag range, 2-4 years) had more immediate effects on lung cancer development compared to carbon monoxide (CO) (lag range, 5-6 years), hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) (lag range, 9 years) and lead (Pb) (lag range, 10-12 years), which had more long-term effects on lung cancer development. Areas with poor air quality may benefit from targeted interventions for lung cancer screening and reductions in environmental pollution.