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通过频率论和贝叶斯方法对埃塞俄比亚儿童死亡率预测因素的比较分析。

Comparative analysis of predictors of child mortality in Ethiopia via frequentist and Bayesian approaches.

作者信息

Aguade Aragaw Eshetie, Chen Ding-Geng

机构信息

Department of Statistics, College of Natural and Computational Sciences, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia.

Department of Statistics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2025 Aug 27;15(1):31582. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-02059-y.

Abstract

The child mortality rate is a leading factor in the well-being and development of a nation. It measures the quality of life for a given population. This study aimed to determine the effects of under-five child mortality in Ethiopia. The authors used a cross-sectional study design via the 2019 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey. For our study, we used 3837 births recorded by mothers in seven regions of Ethiopia. In this study, the author employed the Bayesian and classical logistic regression models. The study found that the household size, number of under-five children, Sex of child, twin, births in the last five years, and breastfeeding status are significant predictors of child mortality in Ethiopia. Consequently, governmental, non-governmental, and other concerned bodies should focus on targeted healthcare interventions for mothers and children by updating their health intervention policies. In addition, improved health services are needed for better health care for children and mothers. Education should be given to mothers during pregnancy and after birth. This helps improve health for mothers and children, along with addressing other risk factors.

摘要

儿童死亡率是一个国家福祉和发展的主要因素。它衡量特定人群的生活质量。本研究旨在确定埃塞俄比亚五岁以下儿童死亡率的影响因素。作者通过2019年埃塞俄比亚人口与健康调查采用了横断面研究设计。在我们的研究中,我们使用了埃塞俄比亚七个地区母亲记录的3837例出生数据。在本研究中,作者采用了贝叶斯和经典逻辑回归模型。研究发现,家庭规模、五岁以下儿童数量、儿童性别、双胞胎、过去五年内的生育次数以及母乳喂养状况是埃塞俄比亚儿童死亡率的重要预测因素。因此,政府、非政府及其他相关机构应通过更新其健康干预政策,专注于针对母亲和儿童的有针对性的医疗保健干预措施。此外,需要改善医疗服务,以便为儿童和母亲提供更好的医疗保健。应在孕期和产后对母亲进行教育。这有助于改善母亲和儿童的健康状况,同时解决其他风险因素。

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