为《健康人民2020》设定一个具有挑战性但切实可行的吸烟率目标：借鉴加利福尼亚州的经验。
Setting a challenging yet realistic smoking prevalence target for Healthy People 2020: learning from the California experience.
作者信息
Mendez David, Warner Kenneth E
机构信息
Department of Health Management and Policy, University of Michigan, 109 Observatory Rd, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA.
出版信息
Am J Public Health. 2008 Mar;98(3):556-9. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2006.107441. Epub 2007 Sep 27.
OBJECTIVES
We sought to outline an optimistic yet achievable goal for future US smoking prevalence rates based on empirical evidence reflecting the success of smoking control efforts in California.
METHODS
Using a dynamic model and the smoking initiation and cessation rates achieved in California as a guide, we projected US adult smoking prevalence rates through the year 2020.
RESULTS
If smoking initiation and cessation rates for the nation do not change, population dynamics will result in smoking prevalence rates falling to 19.1% in 2010 and 16.8% in 2020. If the country attains California's initiation and cessation rates by 2010, adult smoking prevalence rates will be 18.5% in 2010 and 14.7% as of 2020.
CONCLUSIONS
If California's smoking initiation and cessation rates are attained nationwide, the US smoking prevalence rate could be 5.9 percentage points lower than the 2005 rate by the year 2020, and there would be 10.2 million fewer smokers than in 2005. A target of 14% smoking prevalence by 2020 is aggressive yet feasible, given that it takes into account the constraints imposed by population demographics.
目标
我们试图根据反映加利福尼亚州控烟努力成功的实证证据，勾勒出美国未来吸烟流行率的一个乐观但可实现的目标。
方法
以一个动态模型并以加利福尼亚州实现的吸烟起始率和戒烟率为指导，我们预测了到2020年美国成年人的吸烟流行率。
结果
如果全国的吸烟起始率和戒烟率不变，人口动态变化将导致吸烟流行率在2010年降至19.1%，在2020年降至16.8%。如果该国到2010年达到加利福尼亚州的起始率和戒烟率，2010年成年人吸烟流行率将为18.5%，到2020年为14.7%。
结论
如果在全国范围内达到加利福尼亚州的吸烟起始率和戒烟率，到2020年美国吸烟流行率可能比2005年的水平低5.9个百分点，吸烟者将比2005年减少1020万。鉴于考虑到人口统计学所带来的限制，到2020年将吸烟流行率目标设定为14%虽具挑战性但可行。
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