Department of Sociology, University of Western Ontario, Social Science Centre 5326, London, Ontario, N5A 5C2, Canada.
Department of Sociology and Criminology, Pennsylvania State University, 211 Oswald Tower, University Park, PA, 16802, USA.
Demography. 2019 Aug;56(4):1495-1518. doi: 10.1007/s13524-019-00795-1.
How has the demography of grandparenthood changed over the last century? How have racial inequalities in grandparenthood changed, and how are they expected to change in the future? Massive improvements in mortality, increasing childlessness, and fertility postponement have profoundly altered the likelihood that people become grandparents as well as the timing and length of grandparenthood for those that do. The demography of grandparenthood is important to understand for those taking a multigenerational perspective of stratification and racial inequality because these processes define the onset and duration of intergenerational relationships in ways that constrain the forms and levels of intergenerational transfers that can occur within them. In this article, we discuss four measures of the demography of grandparenthood and use simulated data to estimate the broad contours of historical changes in the demography of grandparenthood in the United States for the 1880-1960 birth cohorts. Then we examine race and sex differences in grandparenthood in the past and present, which reveal declining inequality in the demography of grandparenthood and a projection of increasing group convergence in the coming decades.
过去一个世纪以来,祖辈人口结构发生了怎样的变化?祖辈人口结构中的种族不平等状况发生了怎样的变化,未来又将如何变化?死亡率的大幅下降、生育率的持续走低和生育推迟,极大地改变了人们成为祖辈的可能性,以及那些成为祖辈的人的祖辈身份的开始时间和持续时间。从代际和种族不平等的多代视角来看,祖辈人口结构非常重要,因为这些过程以限制代际关系中可能发生的代际转移形式和水平的方式,定义了代际关系的开始和持续时间。在本文中,我们讨论了四种衡量祖辈人口结构的指标,并使用模拟数据估计了美国 1880-1960 年出生队列中过去和现在祖辈人口结构的历史变化的大致轮廓。然后,我们研究了过去和现在祖辈人口结构中的种族和性别差异,这些差异揭示了祖辈人口结构中不平等程度的下降,以及未来几十年群体趋同程度的增加。