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2020-2021 年 COVID-19 季节韩国呼吸道合胞病毒和流感的消失。

Respiratory syncytial virus and influenza epidemics disappearance in Korea during the 2020-2021 season of COVID-19.

机构信息

Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Suwon, Gyeonggi-do, South Korea.

Biostatistics Collaboration Unit, Department of Biomedical Systems Informatics, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.

出版信息

Int J Infect Dis. 2021 Sep;110:29-35. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2021.07.005. Epub 2021 Jul 7.

Abstract

OBJECTIVES

We investigated whether non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) reduce winter-prevalent respiratory viral infections represented by a respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza virus (IFV) during the winter in Korea.

METHODS

The Korean Influenza and Respiratory Virus Monitoring System database was used. From January 2016 through January 2021, the weekly positivity of respiratory viruses and the weekly number of hospitalizations with acute respiratory infections were collected. The NPI period was defined as February 2020-January 2021. We analyzed whether hospitalization and sample positivity by respiratory viruses changed after NPIs. Bayesian structural time-series models and Poisson analyses were used. Data from other countries/regions reporting positive rates of RSV and IFV were also investigated.

RESULTS

Compared with the pre-NPI period, the positive rates of RSV and IFV decreased significantly to 19% and 6%, and 23% and 6% of the predicted value. Also, hospitalization significantly decreased to 9% and 8%, and 10% and 5% of the predicted value. The positive rates of IFV in 14 countries during the NPI period were almost 0, whereas sporadic outbreaks of RSV occurred in some countries.

CONCLUSIONS

No RSV and IFV winter epidemics were observed during the 2020-2021 season in Korea.

摘要

目的

我们旨在研究在韩国冬季,非药物干预(NPIs)是否可以降低呼吸道合胞病毒(RSV)和流感病毒(IFV)等冬季流行的呼吸道病毒感染。

方法

我们使用了韩国流感和呼吸道病毒监测系统数据库。从 2016 年 1 月至 2021 年 1 月,我们收集了每周呼吸道病毒的阳性率和每周急性呼吸道感染住院人数。NPI 期定义为 2020 年 2 月至 2021 年 1 月。我们分析了 NPIs 实施后呼吸道病毒的住院和样本阳性率是否发生变化。采用贝叶斯结构时间序列模型和泊松分析。我们还调查了其他报告 RSV 和 IFV 阳性率的国家/地区的数据。

结果

与 NPI 实施前相比,RSV 和 IFV 的阳性率显著下降至 19%和 6%,为预测值的 23%和 6%。住院率也显著下降至 9%和 8%,为预测值的 10%和 5%。在 NPI 期间,14 个国家的 IFV 阳性率几乎为 0,而 RSV 在一些国家呈散发性爆发。

结论

在 2020-2021 年韩国冬季未观察到 RSV 和 IFV 的冬季流行。

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