Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
Public Health Modeling Unit, Yale School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
Science. 2022 Mar 11;375(6585):1151-1154. doi: 10.1126/science.abl4292. Epub 2022 Jan 27.
The effectiveness of vaccines against COVID-19 on the individual level is well established. However, few studies have examined vaccine effectiveness against transmission. We used a chain binomial model to estimate the effectiveness of vaccination with BNT162b2 [Pfizer-BioNTech messenger RNA (mRNA)-based vaccine] against household transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Israel before and after emergence of the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant. Vaccination reduced susceptibility to infection by 89.4% [95% confidence interval (CI): 88.7 to 90.0%], whereas vaccine effectiveness against infectiousness given infection was 23.0% (95% CI: -11.3 to 46.7%) during days 10 to 90 after the second dose, before 1 June 2021. Total vaccine effectiveness was 91.8% (95% CI: 88.1 to 94.3%). However, vaccine effectiveness is reduced over time as a result of the combined effect of waning of immunity and emergence of the Delta variant.
疫苗在个体层面上预防 COVID-19 的有效性已得到充分证实。然而,很少有研究调查疫苗对传播的有效性。我们使用链式二项式模型来估计在以色列,在 B.1.617.2(Delta)变异株出现之前和之后,BNT162b2(辉瑞-生物科技公司的信使 RNA(mRNA)疫苗)接种对严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2(SARS-CoV-2)家庭传播的有效性。接种疫苗使感染的易感性降低了 89.4%(95%置信区间:88.7%至 90.0%),而在 2021 年 6 月 1 日之前,第二剂接种后 10 至 90 天期间,疫苗对传染性的有效性为 23.0%(95%置信区间:-11.3%至 46.7%)。总体疫苗有效性为 91.8%(95%置信区间:88.1%至 94.3%)。然而,由于免疫力下降和 Delta 变异株的出现的综合影响,疫苗有效性会随着时间的推移而降低。