Global burden of asthma attributable to high body mass index in older adults 1990-2021 and prediction to 2050: An analysis of Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have shown that high body mass index was a primary risk factor for asthma, particularly impacting older adults. This study aimed to assess the spatial and temporal trends for asthma burden attributable to high body mass index in older adults from 1990 to 2021 and to project trends up to 2050.

METHOD

We extracted data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 for population aged over 60 years with asthma attributable to high BMI. Relevant indicators included number of deaths, disability-adjusted life years, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years rates and the rates were directly standardized. Spearman rank correlation test tested the burden against the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Decomposition analysis was used to decompose changes in burden according to population structure, population growth, and epidemiologic changes. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the burden.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2021, despite downward trends in global mortality and disability-adjusted life-year rates, global asthma deaths, and disability-adjusted life years attributable to high body mass index increase by 69% and 46%, rising to 43,628 cases (95% CI: 18,366-71 088) and 1,223,969 years (95% CI: 526,972-1 945,426). Age-standardized mortality rates and disability-adjusted life years rates were more severe in regions with lower SDI, such as Oceania. Mortality rates and disability-adjusted life-year rates increased with age, with a higher burden observed in females compared to males. Population growth had a significant impact on the increase in deaths and disability-adjusted life years from 1990 to 2021, contributing approximately 158% and 222%, respectively. Asthma deaths and disability-adjusted life years attributable to high body mass index will continue to rise to 101,252 cases and 2,941,172 years up to 2050.

CONCLUSION

The global asthma burden due to high body mass index in older adults has risen significantly and is expected to continue this trend, highlighting the importance of developing public health strategies to address this issue.